Farmers rarely forget. Especially when it comes to prices that have shown a striking tendency to take a ride into the stratosphere.
And while the lentil market has done exactly that in the last two years, don’t look for prices to behave the same this buying season.
By now, most in the industry agree the quality problems, which hurt the 1992 and 1993 lentil crops, don’t apply to1994.
The early consensus is that about two-thirds of the prairie lentil crop will grade either 1 or 2.
Even so, farmers have held tight to their stocks during the early fall, remembering what happened in the past two years.
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Matthew Machielse, special crops analyst with Alberta Agriculture in Edmonton, said the long-term average price for lentils is between $17 and $18. Farmers have been waiting for prices to get to that point before selling, he said.
To entice the crop out of farmers’ hands, bids have had to come up to $20 per cwt.
Big percent increase predicted
STAT Publishing, the British Columbia company that publishes a weekly newsletter on specialty crops, estimates 1994 lentil production will be just shy of 474,000 tonnes, up 35 percent from 1993.
Acreage increased by just four percent, to 965,000 acres, so extra production has come in better yields: a forecast average of 1,079 lbs. an acre compared to 836 in 1993.
Like the canola market, strong demand is supporting lentil prices.
Many of Canada’s competitors in the edible lentil trade – Turkey, Australia, Hungary – don’t have the crops to sell this year. The United States will be Canada’s main competitor in 1994.
Lentil buyer Dave Walker of Walker Seeds in Star City, Sask., said he’s seen very good demand from his buyers. In fact, demand has outstripped supply and that’s why prices have appreciated.
But later in the fall, as supply outstrips demand, Walker sees prices relaxing to $16 or $17.
Richard Sabourin of Roy Legumex in St. Jean Baptiste, Man. likewise said demand has been brisk.
But he added Spain, Italy and Greece, some of Canada’s best edible lentil customers, buy for November delivery at the latest. That means their Canadian buying will be wrapping up in a couple of weeks.
If there is any unknown this year, it’s how much of the crop will meet new one percent staining limits for the Extra No. 1 grade. So far, no premium is being offered for these top-quality lentils.
