While grain companies have fewer oilseeds in their elevators this spring, the latest Statistics Canada stocks report shows farmers have more stored in their bins.
Total stocks of canola at March 31 were measured at close to two million tonnes, down seven percent from last year.
But commercial stocks are just 57 percent of what they were at the same time last year. On-farm stocks are up almost 11 percent at 1.6 million tonnes.
Chris Beckman, an analyst with Agriculture Canada, said the trade knew commercial stocks were tight, but wondered whether farmers also had little canola left.
Read Also
Saskatchewan RM declines feedlot application, cites bylaws
Already facing some community pushback, a proposed 2,000-head cattle feedlot south of Swift Current, Sask., has been rejected for a municipal permit, partly over zoning concerns about the minimum distance from a residence.
“The survey confirms farmers have the stocks, they’re just not delivering,” said Beckman.
He believes the price dive canola took in March shut bin doors.
“The industry was giving a premium to canola, trying to entice it off the farm and into the system.”
Nearby canola futures prices have been higher than deferred months, which is a signal to deliver rather than store the crop, Beckman noted.
In flax, total stocks were up 29 percent from the same time last year to 463,000 tonnes.
The report showed 250,000 tonnes of the stocks were in Saskatchewan farmers’ bins, compared to 1998 stocks of 80,000.
“There’s just way more flax seed supply around than can be marketed,” said Beckman.
Before the report, he had forecast 925,000 tonnes of flax exports for the year, with 70,000 tonnes of supply left over at the end of the crop year.
“I’m not sure whether we’re going to meet that export target,” said Beckman, adding he is considering changes to his estimates.
As of March 31, he said flax exports had reached 538,000 tonnes, down from 647,000 tonnes at the same time last year.
Total flax exports in 1997-98 were 917,000 tonnes.
Earlier this month, a Statistics Canada survey revealed farmers are planning to increase flax acres again this year, which Beckman said will add more stocks to a burdensome situation for the crop.
“Certainly for the foreseeable future, the market for oilseeds doesn’t look too good,” said Beckman.
The Statistics Canada report also showed oats stocks up 35 percent over last year at slightly more than two million tonnes, 1.9 million of which are in farmers’ bins. Barley stocks dropped three percent from the same time last year at 6.3 million tonnes. Rye stocks total 227,000 tonnes, about double last year.
