The 2010 farm income projections are devastating.
Agriculture Canada released them with little fanfare in late April, which is later than normal.
A sector that will produce $41.6 billion in farmgate receipts this year will return $291.5 million to farmers in realized net income after depreciation. It is a 91 percent reduction from 2009 levels.
Several provinces will be in deficit, including Ontario and Alberta.
The hog and cattle sectors will be hit particularly hard, according to the numbers prepared by and agreed to by federal and provincial officials.
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The forecast projects a 12 percent increase in program payments to $3.76 billion despite an Agriculture Canada longer-term projection of a sharp decline in government support over the next three years.
National and provincial leaders affiliated with the Canadian Federation of Agriculture called the numbers a clear signal that federal programs are not working.
“The government’s own forecasts show deep losses for many commodities and highlight that the business risk management programs currently in place were not designed to function with today’s unique set of economic circumstances,” CFA president Laurent Pellerin said in a statement.
“While we appreciate the government’s commitment to fostering a long-term industry strategy, it’s very clear that farmers need additional support to get through the short-term.”
The annual farm income forecast, typically published in February and often with Agriculture Canada officials available for comment, was released without notice in late April after farm groups raised the alarm, notably the Ontario Federation of Agriculture.
In addition to its usual recitation of projections and analysis, the report this year also contained some government spin.
For example, the analysis touts the government effort to alleviate livestock sector woes.
“Significant steps have been taken to help Canada’s agriculture industry recover and renew,” said commentary accompanying the income projections.
“Governments continue to work with industry to support those sectors in difficulty and to increase market opportunities for Canadian producers.”
The commentary also noted that farm family income is projected to increase because of higher off-farm income, and that farm asset values are projected to increase more than the growing debt load, despite low income.
Still, the outlook predicts that net operating income on average hog farms will fall from more than $45,000 in 2009 to $1,719 in 2010.
Some provincial farm income projections are particularly dire.
In Alberta, realized net farm income is projected to fall from $335 million in 2009 to more than a $500 million loss in 2010.
In Manitoba, realized net farm income will fall 57 percent to $233 million, said the projection.
Ontario farmers, with cash receipts of $9.2 billion, are projected to lose almost $460 million this year.
Grain and oilseed dependent Saskatchewan, while showing a projected realized net income of almost $1 billion, will be 55 percent less than last year.
