VICTORIA – With predictions of a five-year, 30 percent increase in the value of food exports ringing in their ears, Canada’s agriculture ministers have re-affirmed their full-steam ahead approach to trade promotion.
At an early July federal-provincial agriculture ministers’ meeting, Agriculture Canada projected exports of $21.8-$22.6 billion by 2000.
It predicted growth in most sectors, with an emphasis on processed or value-added product and a slight decline in Canada’s dependence on the United States market.
Last year, exports were worth $17.3 billion and the U.S. took almost half of that.
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“Being successful at trade is a top priority for all of us,” federal agriculture minister Ralph Goodale said at the end of the meeting July 4 as several provincial ministers nodded in agreement.
However, a senior Agriculture Canada official conceded that higher export values will not necessarily translate into higher farm incomes, at least in the short term.
In fact, there could be pressure on farmers to lower prices in order to make export-oriented processors more competitive.
“It is true that in the short term, you could see an increase in export value but not see the full benefit back on the farm,” said AndrŽ Charland, Quebec regional director for Agriculture Canada’s market and industry services branch.
“But in the long term, securing market position now will help farmers and their incomes.”
Charland was one of the department’s officials who briefed agriculture ministers on the report’s optimistic conclusions.
In fact, the report hinted at the pressure on farm product prices by making note of the need for affordable Canadian farm produce if the predictions are to be realized.
“Export market opportunities are not the limiting factor for Canada’s agri-food exports,” it said. “The supply of appropriate products at competitive prices will be a major challenge in achieving market potentials.”
It sees increased sales of grains and oilseeds, sharply increased meat sales to Asia and a boom in exports of such special crops as ginseng, mustard seed, compressed hay and pulse crops.
However, the optimism is based partly on the assumption that the Canadian dollar will average 75 cents U.S. during the next five years.
The report predicts a jump to an 80-cent dollar would reduce the value of wheat exports by $350 million from the report’s expectation.
