A replacement for long-time European Union agriculture commissioner Franz Fischler was named last week and EU watchers are divided over whether the change will lead the EU to veer from its recent policy-reforming ways.
On Nov. 1, after approval by the European Parliament, Danish agriculture and food minister Mariann Fischer Boel will take over as agriculture commissioner, part of a major shuffle in the ranks of the powerful commissioners who direct the affairs of the EU from offices in Brussels.
Fischler, a former Austrian agriculture minister, has been commissioner since 1995. He led the EU through a series of Common Agriculture Policy reforms that reduced crop and production-specific subsidies while steering the EU through several rounds of World Trade Organization negotiations, including the recent WTO talks in which the EU agreed to negotiate an end to export subsidies.
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“Fischler has been a really outstanding commissioner who has done great things, reformed EU policies and convinced the skeptics to go along,” said John Beghin, a native of Belgium who now heads the trade and agriculture policy department at Iowa State University.
“Protectionists and interest groups in countries like France are very strong and may see the change in commissioner as a chance to have some of these reforms reversed,” said Beghin.
Richard Gray, chair of the University of Saskatchewan agricultural economics department, said the influx of millions of new farmers through expansion of the EU into Eastern Europe will have more influence on policy than a commissioner change.
“I really don’t think it matters much who the commissioner is,” he said from Saskatoon. “They will have to reduce subsidies simply because their farm base is expanding substantially and they could not afford to keep support at previous levels.”
Former agriculture minister Lyle Vanclief, who developed a friendship with Fischler during the six years their jobs coincided, said the conviction and tactics of individuals can influence outcomes so the personality of the agriculture commissioner matters.
He recalled a 4 a.m. conversation with Fischler in Qatar during a WTO ministers’ meeting in November 2001 that helped lead to a European decision to agree to launch the current WTO round.
“He had opposition from within the EU, but he took a chance and stood his ground,” said Vanclief.
Now, in the midst of the negotiating round, Fischler and EU trade commissioner Pascal Lamy are being replaced and there are rumours that United States trade representative Robert Zoellick will retire after the November U.S. elections.
“I’m not being pessimistic but those are pretty key people to be leaving the mix,” said Vanclief.
“I don’t think we know at this time what the impact will be but it could have an effect.”
