SYDNEY, Australia (Reuters) — An El Nino is now well established and continues to strengthen, the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) said, with models indicating that sea-surface temperature anomalies in the central Pacific Ocean are set to climb to the highest in 19 years.
The El Nino, marked by a warming of sea-surface temperatures in the Pacific, can lead to scorching weather across Asia and east Africa but heavy rains and floods in South America.
“This past week the central tropical Pacific is 1.6 C above normal, and slowly warming still — and forecast by models to continue warming,” Andrew Watkins, supervisor, Climate Prediction Services at the BOM, said.
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“Remember, peak values typically occur late in the year so we have a three to seven months to go before we may peak in the current event. The 1987 (event) peaked in August — all other events peaked between November and February,” said Watkins.
Further warming is likely, according to models monitored by the BOM, with an average peak reading of +2.7 C above normal by December expected.
Should that forecast be realized, it would be the biggest anomaly since 1997, surpassing the top recordings associated with the El Ninos of 2002 and 2009, data from the BOM shows.
