HIGH RIVER, Alta. – Liberal candidate Bernie Kennedy is under no illusions about the electoral fate that awaits him Jan. 23 in the Macleod riding south of Calgary.
Conservative Ted Menzies will sweep to victory as he did in 2004, when he won the support of 75 percent of those who voted.
“There is no point of dreaming of winning anywhere in rural Alberta if you are not Conservative,” the computer specialist said Jan. 5 as the election campaign headed into its final two weeks. “The election is decided the day the writ is dropped.”
Read Also
August rain welcome, but offered limited relief
Increased precipitation in August aids farmers prior to harvest in southern prairies of Canada.
In Manitoba’s Dauphin-Swan River, Liberal second-time candidate and former farm leader Don Dewar said it is a tough slog and faltering national Liberal prospects are not helping. In 2004, Conservative Inky Mark took 54 percent of the vote and Dewar came third with 20 percent.
“Clearly it is uphill and it would be easier if our national situation was more positive,” Dewar said in an interview. “But if each person who voted for me before convinced one Conservative friend to switch their vote, I would win. That’s an easier way for me to look at it.”
In dozens of ridings across the Prairies, the only Jan. 23 question is whether the Conservatives can surpass their 2004 margins.
In many cases, they were the most one-sided election results in the country – more than 80 percent of the vote in Alberta’s Crowfoot riding went to Kevin Sorenson, 77 percent went to Myron Thompson in Wild Rose, also in Alberta, and 63 percent voted for Brian Pallister in Manitoba’s Portage-Lisgar.
By contrast, prime minister Paul Martin drew 56.6 percent of the vote in his Montreal riding.
These one-sided election contests present campaigners for the certain winners with an unusual political dilemma: how can volunteers be encouraged to work and voters motivated to vote when they know the outcome?
“It is a real challenge getting the people out to vote if they think it is a foregone conclusion,” said Macleod Conservative president Peter Fermor.
Campaign manager Marie Poelman said the Menzies campaign is turning to the internet to reach young voters and is working hard throughout the riding to make the rookie MP known and ensure he knows the complexity of his rural and suburban-mixed riding.
“I don’t think about it as a race to win,” she said. “I see it as shaping the politician to be a better representative of this riding, understanding the needs of the different groups and making sure he is exposed to them. But we do have to work at convincing people it is important that they vote. And campaigns cost money so we have to convince people that although they think we are in good shape, we do need their donations.”
In at least one area of the campaign, the prospect of winning is a draw. The certain winners say volunteers are not a problem.
“The issue we have is finding enough jobs for all the people who come in,” said Cypress Hills-Grasslands Conservative incumbent David Anderson in an interview in Beechy, Sask. In 2004, he drew 60 percent of the vote.
Across the border in Alberta’s Red Deer riding, Dalt McCambley agreed saying the re-election campaign for Bob Mills, who captured 75 percent of the vote in 2004, is awash in volunteers.
On the other side of the contest, the doomed candidates often cite difficulty in attracting enough volunteers to plant signs and to distribute literature.
