While Canada’s beef export volume was up 13 percent for 2016, the value only increased by 1.25 percent
Global pork and beef production is expanding with China expected to absorb the added supplies, said Rabobank’s Global Outlook for Animal Protein in 2017.
China is expected to remain the world’s largest pork importer bringing in about 2.7 million tonnes from various sources. It is trying to build up its domestic production but will continue to look for reliable suppliers like Canada, United States, Mexico, Brazil and the European Union.
China’s poultry imports will be flat because its domestic production almost fills its needs, but beef imports are expected to climb with most going to middle and high income groups.
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Canada has remained an active beef exporter, even though the domestic cow herd remains stable in size, said market analyst Brian Perillat of Canfax.
“We are growing our beef production. We are not making big changes at all,” he said “In 2016, we in-creased beef production by 10 percent by bigger slaughter rates and bigger carcass weights.”
Exports were up in volume at 322,000 tonnes for 2016. It marks a 13 percent improvement from the year before, but overall value only increased by 1.25 percent. About $2.2 billion worth of beef was exported at the end of October when the last statistics were available.
“We should maintain a good export pace by the end of the year,” he said.
For example, Canada exported 628 million pounds of beef to the U.S. in 2015 and 735 million lb. in 2016 according to the Steiner Consulting Group, which publishes the Daily Livestock Report.
The U.S. brought in more beef from Canada and Mexico because of a shortfall from Australia. In 2015, about 1.25 billion lb. came from Australia, but due to drought and other buyers bidding aggressively, exports to the U.S. dropped to 770 million lb.
U.S. beef production grew by about five percent in 2016 and should increase by an additional 2.5 percent to 3.5 percent in 2017.
American pork production is also increasing and may be enough to encourage the opening of five new processing plants in the U.S. in 2017.
Expansion in beef and pork might encourage exports but the strong U.S. dollar could make them more expensive in a world market.
Global poultry production is expected to shrink after three years of expansion. Most production growth is expected to come from the U.S., Brazil and China. American poultry supplies should grow another two to three percent in 2017 after five consecutive years of growth.
Brazil is expected to increase production of pork, beef and poultry by about five percent in 2017.
China, Hong Kong and Russia are Brazil’s top three pork customers.
In 2015, Brazil sold 5,000 tonnes of pork to China, but in 2016 that increased to 69,000 tonnes and Rabobank forecasts that amount could increase to 100,000 tonnes in 2017.
Argentina is expanding beef production and is looking to boost exports to China, the European Union, Chile and Israel.
The EU has an ample supply of cattle and is looking at improving its export strategies. Its pork production declined by 1.5 percent but poultry is expected to grow by 1.5 percent, down from four to five percent annual growth in recent years.
Exports to southeastern Asia should remain strong, especially for halal-produced products.
Indian buffalo meat exports are finding good sales in Vietnam, Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand, Laos and Singapore.
Seafood consumption is expected to increase by about two percent globally. Aquaculture supplies more than half the seafood consumed in the world.
Farmed seafood like salmon and shrimp are expected to overtake the wild catch of species like tuna, Alaska pollock, Atlantic cod, mackerel and herring.
Rabobank considers currency volatility and technical barriers in the name of food safety to be the challenges of 2017.
Technical barriers are often unregulated requirements and as the world becomes more protectionist, these could continue to distort trade.
Other challenges in 2017 include the growing consumer resistance to the use of antimicrobials in livestock production, as well as questions about greenhouse gas emissions coming from the sector.
While it is still a small segment, there is growing interest in alternative proteins with most of the growth coming from soy-based proteins. The global market for alternatives is expected to reach more than five billion tonnes by 2020 but most of the offerings will be niche products.
“Taste, quality, price and appearance are not yet sufficiently distinguishing from meat to capture enduring mass market preference,” said the report.
