SASKATOON — The long-time ruler of prairie agriculture may be dethroned this year by a brash young pretender.
King Wheat is dead! (Maybe.)
Long live King Canola!
If Nick Underwood’s figures are right, the canola crop that has just been put in the ground by prairie farmers could be worth more than the spring wheat crop.
“Wheat has been king in Western Canada since we got started here,” said Underwood, crop production co-ordinator for the Canola Council of Canada. “This would be a first.”
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Not bad for a crop that didn’t exist 30 years ago, was a curiosity 20 years ago and was still a relatively minor “Cinderella” crop 10 years ago.
Underwood admits his calculations are a little rough and a lot can happen between now and the time farmers actually get paid for the crop they’ve just seeded. Nevertheless, here are the numbers:
- Canola
Statistics Canada says about 13.1 million acres of canola were planted, although the industry thinks it’s more like 14 million.
Long-term average yields are 22 bushels (about half a tonne) an acre, but with the good moisture conditions so far, it’s reasonable to expect 23 bushels. That would produce a crop of 7.3 million tonnes.
On the day Underwood was interviewed, farmers could lock in a futures price of $398.50 a tonne, less a $50 basis for a farmgate price of $348.50.
Multiply that by 7.3 million tonnes, and the crop is potentially worth a little over $2.5 billion.
* Wheat
- Wheat
Stats Canada says 22.3 million acres were seeded to spring wheat (not including durum) in Western Canada.
Long-term average yields vary widely across the prairies, but at 31 bushels (0.8 tonnes) an acre, the crop would be about 18 million tonnes.
Prices for different grades and classes of spring wheat are all over the map. Based on the Canadian Wheat Board’s 1994-95 outlook and assuming a normal grade distribution, the average farmgate price will be around $110 a tonne.
At $110 a tonne, an 18 million-tonne spring wheat crop is worth a shade under $2 billion.
University of Saskatchewan farm economist Bill Brown said he’s not all that surprised by the prospect of canola overtaking wheat, particularly after travelling in eastern Saskatchewan last week.
“Wheat in that part of the province is almost a rotation crop,” he said. “I got that impression for the first time.”
Price is the driving force in the switch to other crops, he said, but new technology, like air seeders, has given farmers more flexibility and made it easier to grow a variety of grains, oilseeds and pulses. Some farmers he’s visited have seeded nine different crops.
Statistics Canada figures show 1993 farm cash receipts in Western Canada were $2.3 billion for wheat (not including durum) and $1.2 billion for canola. In 1992 the figures were $2.2 billion for wheat and $1 billion for canola.
