WINNIPEG – Farmers dream about the kind of bumper crop described in the latest report from Statistics Canada, which shows record yields for barley and canola.
But analysts issued a wake-up call when the closely watched numbers were released on Monday.
“We’re going to have to have a pretty fair chunk of co-operation from Mother Nature here to get the crop in the bin,” warned Charlie Pearson, of Growers Marketing Services.
The estimates reflect farmers’ production estimates as of July 31. Analysts say farmers usually have a good handle by that date on what they’ll harvest.
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But because of the late growing season, the numbers reflect crop guesstimates more closely than probable estimates.
“It’s a pretty big guess at that point, really,” said Agriculture Canada oilseeds analyst Lyndon Peters.
“Some of the wheat out there was probably still flowering or a lot of the canola was just blooming around July 31.”
Peters said he’d be surprised if farmers can get their canola in the bins and retain the record yield of 25.7 bushels per acre shown in the report.
He expects total Canadian production to be closer to 5.1 million tonnes rather than the projected 5.337 million tonnes.
Paul Bullock, head of the weather and crop surveillance department at the Canadian Wheat Board, said he saw some decent-looking crops during a recent prairie tour.
He doubts farmers will see a crop failure this year, but he also doubts they’ll see records.
“My gut feeling is that these (estimates) are probably a little bit optimistic for yields,” he said.
Ideal weather for maturing
Over the past few weeks, crops have ripened quickly with warm temperatures.
“I think we’ve sacrificed some yield in return for some maturity, which isn’t necessarily a bad thing,” Bullock said.
Gordon Reichert, a remote sensing analyst with Agriculture Canada, said he cringed when he saw the barley numbers, which show yields of 58.9 bushels per acre, higher than previous records set in 1993.
“In 1993, we also had a very late fall which allowed us to get the grain off with … minimal frost impact,” he said, adding crop quality and quantity were good.
“This year, crop development is later than 1993, so I have concerns in that regard.”
Reichert said he planned to factor weather, Bertha army worms, wheat midge, fusarium and probable frost dates into upcoming estimates.
