The normally cautious think-tank Conference Board of Canada is warning that a deadly global outbreak of an avian influenza pandemic could cripple Canada’s economy kill hundreds of millions of people and create world
instability.
“There is a growing consensus that a large-scale and possibly catastrophic flu epidemic is imminent,” the CCC said in a report on 2005-06 prospects published last week. “This long awaited flu virus is expected to be so contagious that any attempt to close off borders and control migration would be completely ineffective. The consequences would be devastating.”
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The economic forecaster said that based on the 1918-19 Spanish influenza toll of an estimated 50 million dead, the next pandemic could claim between 180 million and 360 million victims worldwide.
Conference Board analysts say it is impossible to estimate the economic impact of such a catastrophe but the SARS outbreak that killed 800 people globally and more than 40 in Canada is estimated to have cost $50 billion.
They suggest the cost of the next pandemic will be “staggering,” in the hundreds of billions of dollars, and that the world would become less stable and secure.
“Aside from the sheer dent in the global workforce, an epidemic of medium proportions would break global production chains, shatter trade and impede the delivery of services involving human contact,” said the forecast. “A flu pandemic on a large scale would throw the world into a sudden and possibly dramatic global recession.”
Among its apocalyptic predictions, the Conference Board said poor countries already reeling from the AIDS epidemic would be the hardest hit.
“It would not only kill millions of people, it would have the power to close borders, destabilize economies and topple unstable governments,” said the report.
“It would elevate the more traditional security risks and would help shape a world where other threats could blossom.”
