SYDNEY, Australia (Reuters) – The Australian Canola Association is forecasting a slightly smaller crop in the 2001-2002 crop year.
Estimates of farmers’ planting intentions suggest a one to 12 percent reduction. Farmers will sow between 2.86 and 3.23 million acres, down from an estimated 3.31 million in 2000-2001, the association said.
“The actual size of the planting will obviously depend on the adequacy and timing of the autumn break – less area if the break is late – and price movements for canola, wheat and other crops leading up to planting time,” it said.
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The smaller forecast was influenced by different factors, including disappointment with average yields last year, the association said.
The 2000-2001 crop dropped to an estimated 1.68 million tonnes, at an average yield of 0.51 tonnes per acre, from 2.40 million tonnes in 1999-2000.
The association’s latest 2000-2001 estimate had been raised slightly from a mid-December figure of 1.65 million tonnes.
“There were higher than usual losses from disease and waterlogging last year, especially in southern New South Wales and South Australia.”
“In the higher rainfall areas of southern New South Wales last year canola yields did not maintain the normal relativity with wheat.”
Growers’ planting intentions in New South Wales and Victoria are down five to 10 percent.
Other factors affecting the preliminary area forecast were inadequate rainfall and drought in some areas of Western Australia last year caused by drought.
Continuing snail problems in South Australia was also a disincentive to growers, the association said. But growers in central and northern New South Wales appear to be maintaining or increasing the area sown.
“In parts of northern New South Wales, in spite of crops being destroyed by rain and floods in November, growers are pleased with canola performance over the past few years and are talking of lifting plantings this year,” the association said.
The Western Australian crop was raised by 50,000 tonnes while the South Australian crop was lowered by 16,000 tonnes. Production in other states remained unchanged, but the sown area estimate in New South Wales was lifted to about 990,000 acres from 940,000 to better reflect the slightly lower yields achieved.
