The fate of Ottawa’s controversial agricultural policy framework with a revamped farm safety net program now depends on decisions made by provincial governments in Saskatchewan and Ontario, where voters have a chance this fall to tell their politicians exactly what they want them to do.
Both provinces have so far resisted signing APF agreements that will scrap the popular Net Income Stabilization Account program for a more controversial program. Either province could launch the program by signing onto the implementation deal.
A new Ontario Liberal government takes office Oct. 23 with clear instructions from provincial farm leaders that it not sign the APF without significant concessions from Ottawa.
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In Saskatchewan, a new government will be elected Nov. 5 and one of its first decisions will be whether to sign the APF, which Ottawa insists is the only vehicle that will funnel $5.2 billion over the next five years to farmers.
Canadian Federation of Agriculture president Bob Friesen, a leading critic of the APF business risk management design, said it gives those two new provincial governments leverage to extract concessions from Ottawa.
“We certainly will encourage both governments to withhold their signatures until there have been changes,” he said. “I hope if the current minister wants a deal soon, he will listen.”
Quebec farm leader Laurent Pellerin was more blunt. If Ontario and Saskatchewan delay signatures for a few months, Paul Martin will replace Jean Chrétien as prime minister and he has promised more flexibility and probably a new agriculture minister.
“Mr. Martin and the people around him are indicating they are open to our arguments and want to work more closely with us,” he said.
“I think they will be more flexible. What we have now with this government and this minister is an authoritarian attitude on this file, an attitude that says this is the way it is going to be, take it or leave it.”
Pellerin and Friesen complained that federal agricultural minister Lyle Vanclief has used the threat of withholding money as a way to “force” provinces to sign.
Last week, that strategy had some success. Quebec became the seventh province to sign the APF and as it meanders through its final months in power, the Chrétien government has come tantalizingly close to getting its five-year, $5.2 billion farm funding commitment into law.
But will the newly elected governments in either Ontario or Saskatchewan sign the agreement to give it life?
Ron Bonnett, president of the Ontario Federation of Agriculture, is convinced the new provincial minister will not sign. During their successful election campaign, the Liberals promised to heed farmer demands that APF design be changed to accommodate provincial specific programs, negative margins and affordability.
They also reject Ottawa’s view that APF is an answer to the cattle crisis.
“We expect the new government to abide by its election promise to not sign without improvements acceptable to farmers,” Bonnett said.
In Saskatchewan, electioneering premier Lorne Calvert said Oct. 10 the NDP is not prepared to sign the current agreement.
“We are not at this time yet prepared to sign the APF.”
Opposition leader Elwin Hermanson said he has not seen all the APF details and would have to study it if he wins.
“We have to see it completely and analyze it completely, but my guess is the province of Saskatchewan has to sign it,” he said at a news conference announcing party election policy.
Farm leaders will be suggesting he spend at least the months required to get Martin into power before he considers the APF properly analyzed.
