BEIJING, China (Reuters) — Top Chinese grain trader COFCO estimates that China’s wheat imports would amount to no more than five million tonnes in the 2013-14 marketing year,.
The forecast is much lower than what analysts had expected and what data on shipments to date have indicated.
Weather damage this spring to China’s wheat crop in major production areas Henan and Shandong has pushed up analysts’ estimates for its 2013-14 imports to 10 million tonnes, which would be the highest level in a decade.
China National Grain and Oils Information Center, an official think-tank, revised its predictions for China’s wheat imports late month to 7.5 million tonnes for the year ending May 2014.
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China has already ordered 3.7 million tonnes from the United States and 2.2 million from Australia, as well as 220,000 tonnes from France, the centre said in a report, for a total of more than six million tonnes.
COFCO president Yu Xubo cast doubt on the bullish forecasts and provided his own estimate of three to five million tonnes.
“I don’t think there will be such large imports. We always have a good harvest, and stocks are very full,” he said.
Aggressive orders by Chinese buyers have already driven up U.S. wheat prices by 4.6 percent in the July-September quarter, while EU wheat futures touched a 3½ month high earlier this month.
Chinese wheat prices reached record highs last month, driven by a shortage of high-quality grain.
