Some major winter wheat crops around the world have endured problems in the autumn that could cut into yields at harvest time.
As of Dec. 11, the drought-stressed Texas winter wheat crop was rated 58 percent poor to very poor. Also, a severe cold snap Dec. 8 could have caused frost damage in some areas of Texas and Oklahoma, although it is too early to confirm that yields will be affected.
Texas was the fourth largest winter wheat producing state in 2005 at 2.7 million tonnes, or about seven percent of the United States crop.
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Oklahoma, at 3.5 million tonnes the second largest winter wheat producer after Kansas, is also dry and crop conditions are significantly worse than last year, although not yet as bad as Texas.
Kansas, the dominant producer at about 10 million tonnes, is slightly dry.
Private forecaster Informa Economics projects U.S. winter wheat growers to have seeded 1.5 million acres more than last year. The U.S. Department of Agriculture will release its winter wheat seedings report on Jan 12.
The second significant problem in global winter wheat production is in Russia and Ukraine, but after a dry autumn, conditions have improved recently.
Dry soils in the fall caused the Ukraine crop area to be reduced by about 20 percent, while in Russia the area dropped about eight percent. Also the condition of the wheat that was planted was not as good as it was last year when it went into dormancy.
While there have been troubles this fall, winter wheat is a resilient crop. After recent precipitation, soil moisture has improved in parts of Russia. Spring weather has a much larger impact than fall conditions on final yields and production, but there is some reason for hope that Russia and Ukraine will produce smaller crops and won’t depress markets as much as they have this year.
