Give farmers money and some luck with weather and look out – you’ll get a lot of grain. 
Estimates of the 2008 world wheat crop keep getting bigger. The International Grains Council October report increased its forecast from September by seven million tonnes, putting the wheat crop at 683 million tonnes, up 73 million or 12 percent from last year.
It is rare to see such a year-over-year increase. There was a similar tonnage and percentage increase between 2003-04 and 2004-05, while percentage increases in the mid-1970s were a little larger.
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The IGC forecasts a large increase in global ending stocks to 150 million tonnes from 118 million last year. However, that is down four million tonnes from September, thanks to a lower carry-in estimate and higher consumption as livestock producers feed more lower quality wheat.
The IGC thinks the 2009 wheat-seeded area will be 1.8 percent smaller, a result of a sharper reduction in exporting countries but increases in India and Pakistan. Area in the United States, European Union, Canada, Australia and Argentina could drop by 2.5 percent.
However, fall weather has been mostly conducive to winter crop seeding and emergence and there is no weather disruption such as an el Niño or la Nina affecting climate, so at this early point there is nothing to hold back yield.
The news of better-than expected 2008 harvests in the northern hemisphere is largely drowning out continually declining production prospects in Australia.
While it will produce significantly more than last year’s drought ravaged crop of 13 million tonnes, it will fall far short of early hopes for a bumper crop.
The Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics expects wheat production at 19.9 million tonnes, down 11 percent from September.
ABARE cut its barley production forecast by nearly 20 percent to 6.3 million tonnes in 2008-09, while canola output is seen at 1.3 million tonnes, down 320,000 tonnes from the September forecast. Last year, barley production was 5.92 million tonnes and canola production was 1.065 million.
Pulse Australia expects pulse production at 1.23 million tonnes, down 23 percent from last September and about equal with last year.
