Some international fertilizer prices were still falling in December, but not at the rate they were earlier in the fall. And there was some evidence a bottom might be forming.
The Market, a daily fertilizer newsletter produced in London, England, reports on its website, www.fertilizerworks.com, that at the end of December, prilled urea at the port of Yuzhny, Ukraine, edged lower to $205-$216 per tonne from $217-$228 per tonne Dec. 18 and $223-$228 Dec. 11.
Granular urea basis the Middle East held at $240-$245 per tonne Dec. 31 compared to $240-$242 Dec. 18.
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However, in the New Orleans area, urea edged higher to $205-$213 per tonne Dec. 31 compared to $185-$210 Dec. 18 and $195-$210 Dec. 11.
Diammonium phosphate (DAP) in the Tampa, Florida, area dropped to $375-$395 Dec. 31 from $390-$400 Dec. 18 and $390-$430 Dec. 11.
Ammonia at Tampa was steady at $125 Dec. 31.
Sulfur at Vancouver was steady at $45-$60 per tonne.
The Market says a floor appears to have been reached and prices might rise in the new year, particularly if grain prices rise.
In the past, China was a source of cheap fertilizer but last year the government there imposed export taxes to keep more product at home to fight rising prices.
China has a new policy that lowers tariffs to allow exports during the slow domestic application season, but The Market says China is not now aggressively marketing product. However, the Chinese government is apparently considering dropping its export tax on fertilizer to help the ailing industry there.
If the tax were dropped, making Chinese fertilizer available, that would act to restrain global price increases.
The Market also says India is in the market to buy DAP. Indian buying might use up the cheap product now on the market and allow higher prices in the future if fertilizer makers continue to keep large parts of their production capacity closed.
The Market says half of the world’s DAP and mono-ammonium phosphate production capacity is shut down and producers are considering keeping it closed into the first quarter of 2009.
