The Canadian Wheat Board expects western Canadian farmers to produce three million more tonnes of wheat this year compared to 2007, despite concerns about a cool spring that has delayed crop development.
“We cannot afford to carry this (cold weather) on very much longer, because we’ll be pushing the harvest past Labour day,” said Bruce Burnett, CWB director of weather and market analysis.
In its annual spring briefing to industry June 12 in Winnipeg, the CWB said, “wheat, durum and barley crops are currently one to two weeks behind normal because of cold conditions and a continuation of cool weather through the month of June will result in serious concerns about the delayed development and increased risk of frost damage in the fall.”
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Nevertheless, the board believes production of all wheat will jump to 21.2 million tonnes this year, up from 18.4 million tonnes in 2007, but less than the five year average of 22.1 million.
Durum should see the largest increase. The CWB expects prairie farmers will produce 4.8 million tonnes in 2008, well above last year’s 3.7 million tonnes and higher than the five year average of 4.4 million.
An acreage gain of 12.8 percent is solely responsible for the increased output of wheat, because the CWB expects yields to fall this year.
Based on weather risk models, CWB forecasters believe the average yield for all wheat crops will range from 30.4 to 36.6 bushels per acre. Its most likely forecast is 34.3 bu. per acre, or 1.5 bu. per acre lower than predictions at the same time in 2007.
That expectation for 2008 yields, however, is based on a summer with normal temperatures.
“If we have a July like we did last year (with hot temperatures), we could be down to the 10th percentile (30.4 bu. per acre),” said Burnett.
Although many prairie residents may perceive this as the coldest spring in recent memory, it was colder in 2004.
Looking at weather data from Brandon, for example, the daily mean temperature in May is normally 11. 4 C.
This May the daily mean temperature averaged 8.6 C, nearly three degrees below normal and the 20th coldest May on record for Brandon, said Dale Marciski, climate services officer for Environment Canada.
“It’s definitely cooler than normal, but it’s not record breaking …. But 2004 was third coldest at 6.3 C,” said Marciski.
Environment Canada predicted normal or above normal temperatures for most of the Prairies this week, so the worst may be over, just in time for the official beginning of summer June 21.
But there are still concerns that the late emergence this spring will delay crop flowering this summer, said CWB agronomist Mike Grenier.
“If we push that switch from vegetative to reproductive stage out into what is normally our hotter July periods, that could impact yield in a substantial way,” he said.
