Hog prices in trouble
The United States Department of Agriculture pig report released June 25 surprised analysts by showing the hog herd size and farrowing intentions down only a little from last year’s levels.
With the hog market in the tank much of this year, traders expected big cuts in hog production.
If the report is accurate, there could be problems with slaughter plant capacity, and pressure on prices, again this fall and winter.
In the cash market, higher wholesale pork prices in the U.S., particularly for ribs, allowed packers there to raise hog prices.
Read Also
Vegetable oil stocks are expected to tighten this year
Global vegetable oil stocks are forecast to tighten in the 2025-26 crop year, this should bode well for canola demand.
Iowa-southern Minnesota hog prices (plant top, 51-52 percent lean, live equivalent) rose from $39/hundredweight (U.S.) on June 21 to $40.25/cwt. midweek, but then fell about $1 by the close.
There is no shortage of hogs in the U.S., market weights are still too high and pork stocks are ample. However, there was good movement last week. Retail featuring should keep prices stable until after the long weekend but then prices are projected to decline in July.
Average Manitoba Index 100 hog prices last week increased to an estimated $133 per 100 kilograms.
Ontario and Quebec prices are lower because well supplied packers have had no incentive to pay higher prices for hogs, particularly if their margins are negative.
Last week’s Canadian Pork Market Review said packers’ margins have been negative for 12 weeks.
Fed cattle down
The fed cattle market fell again last week with average prices $2-$3 per cwt. lower than the previous week, said Canfax.
Some producers are not offering cattle at these prices. Some packers have built up an extended live inventory in their pens.
Cattle previously destined for IBP in Pasco, Washington, are being re-routed to Brooks, Alta., or other IBP plants.
Alberta prices June 24 were steers $83.55-$85.75 per cwt., flat rail $136.50-$142 and heifers $83.50-$84.25.
The beef business slowed as most retailers completed buying for the July 1 holiday here and July 4 in the U.S.
Large kills have meant ample product in the pipeline and now packers are reducing their prices to spur better movement.
Montreal wholesale beef price was down $1 to $153. The Calgary price was down $2 in a range of $144-$153 per cwt. on handyweight steers.
The IBP Pasco plant strike and uncertainty about the outcome of the preliminary U.S. anti-dumping petition, coupled with ample supplies of market-ready cattle, have put packers in the driver’s seat.
Fed prices could drop $1-$2 per cwt. this week.
Slaughter cow sales were steady early last week and firmed $1-$1.50 by the close.
Packer demand improved due to stronger boneless beef prices and tight supplies.
Outlook for this week is steady to $1 higher.
Feeder prices strong
Feeder cattle prices were steady to stronger as volumes continue their seasonal decline. Buyers looked for quality in diminished supplies.
Volumes were down 21 percent from the previous week. Compared to last year, volumes are down 17 percent while prices are $5-$8 higher.
The market is expected to remain strong. However, news of a duty on export cattle could shake things up. But with current small numbers and good demand, price strength should continue.
Bred cows ranged from $550-$1,050 on few quotes. Bred heifers were barely quoted in a range of $800-$1,000. Cow-calf pair sales were from $700-$1,450.
