Will April showers bring May flowers?
Rain has been in the forecast at home and the United States lately.
Wheat and corn prices were dropping early this week on forecasts that the U.S. Midwest and Plains areas were to get six to 25 millimetres of rain.
The area has been dry during the winter, which was one factor stopping wheat prices from falling farther than they already have.
With rain in the forecast, the drought premium is fading away, but one storm system will not make up the deficit and more moisture is needed.
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The yield estimates for wheat and soybeans were neutral to bullish, but these were largely a sideshow when compared with corn.
The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released a drought assessment last week. For a link, go to www.producer.com and click on links in the news.
Its spring outlook is for dry conditions to continue through Montana, North and South Dakota and Nebraska, affecting spring seeding and winter crop conditions.
Parts of Western Canada have also received moisture recently.
An excellent summation of Western Canada’s temperature and precipitation outlook, soil moisture and runoff was recently posted on the Prairie Farm Rehabilitation Administration drought website. It too can be found on our website at links in the news.
The outlook, based on Environment Canada’s March to May forecast, shows temperatures should be normal. There is about a 40 percent chance that the Peace River area of northern Alberta and British Columbia and Saskatchewan’s northern grain belt area could get above average precipitation.
There is about a 50 percent chance that the southern third of Saskatchewan’s grain belt could get below normal precipitation in the spring. The outlook for the rest of Alberta and Manitoba is for normal precipitation.
The area of highest drought risk remains northeastern Alberta, northwestern Saskatchewan and the High Level area in the northern Peace region.
The good news for this area is that the summer outlook shows the possibility for above normal rain. However, the confidence level in the outlook is low because it is so long term.
El Nino, the Pacific air and sea temperature phenomenon that affects global weather, appears to be weakening, and could be gone by the end of April. But its evolution will be unclear for a while, making long-term forecasts a tricky affair.
