We can blame the Hudson Bay vortex.
That’s the low pressure system of cold air over Hudson Bay that rotates counterclockwise, drawing arctic air down through the Prairies in winter.
It normally weakens in summer and might even disappear, but this year, for no explainable reason, it has been unusually strong, causing the Prairies to have one of its coldest summers on record.
The cool wet weather since the Aug. 20 frost has done little to push crops to maturity and with each passing day, the danger of another frost increases.
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That means there is a growing likelihood of increased amounts of feed grade grain – disappointing for grain growers but good news for hard-pressed livestock producers.
Indeed, quality may well become a widespread concern for markets and processors and widen the spread between high and low quality.
The frost danger extends into the northern plains states where crop development is also behind normal.
Britain has a quality problem too, with persistent rain delaying harvest of its large grain crop.
Bad weather dogged the harvest in Ukraine, cutting yields and quality and interfering with the country’s hopes to export more wheat.
The one place that seems ready to capitalize on all this is Russia, which has a large harvest this year after a disastrous season last year. It expects most of its wheat to be milling quality and could export five million tonnes or more.
As we brace for nature’s surprises this harvest, the first of the winter forecasts has arrived and it is fairly positive.
The Farmer’s Almanac comes out this week. Its long-range winter forecast is for near normal conditions in Manitoba and Saskatchewan’s northeast. Above average snowfall is predicted for Alberta and southwestern Saskatchewan.
The snowy conditions are also forecast for the U.S. spring wheat states and near normal conditions for the winter wheat area.
