World wheat markets are closely following the condition of the winter wheat crop in Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas, which has received recent welcome rain.
“There’s going to be a direct correlation between wheat prices and the state of the U.S. crop,” said Canadian Wheat Board market analyst Neil Townsend.
If that crop somehow rebounds from its abysmal start it wouldn’t bode well for an already oversupplied wheat market.
“The better the winter wheat starts to look, that would remove one leg of bullishness in the market,” said Townsend.
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Kim Anderson, crop marketing specialist with Oklahoma State University, said there has been a stunning turnaround in the fate of the U.S. winter wheat crop.
“It’s just miraculous what these producers have done,” he said.
Growers who seeded into dust got some timely rains and are now looking at excellent stands of wheat throughout most of Oklahoma. The crop is about to go into winter dormancy in better shape than expected.
Four weeks ago Anderson would have estimated U.S. growers would harvest about half of a normal winter wheat crop.
His latest forecast is for three-quarters of a crop, but if farmers receive more timely rains they could easily be looking at an average or above average crop.
“Everybody bought crop insurance because nobody was going to be able to produce anything,” said Anderson.
And while there is very little subsoil moisture, there is enough topsoil moisture to produce a decent crop.
“It’s just like flipping a switch. We even have grazing. We’ve got so much growth on some wheat we’ve got cattle on it grazing it. It’s just mind boggling,” he said.
Winter wheat crops are a mixed bag in other major growing regions.
Russia’s growers have received so much rain they had to cut back on plantings, sowing an estimated 41.5 million acres, which was short of the government’s target of 44.5 million acres. What has been planted appears to be in good shape, according to Moscow analyst SovEcon.
In neighbouring Ukraine, up to 30 percent of the winter wheat crop could be lost due to insufficient soil moisture and early temperature drops that resulted in low sprouting and uneven germination, according to the State Meteorology Center of Ukraine.
Ukrainian farmers had planted 15.7 million acres of winter wheat as of Nov. 1 compared to 16.6 million acres last year.
Crops are developing nicely in the European Union. Warm and dry conditions have helped early plant growth in France, the region’s largest wheat producer.
The federal agriculture minister says he is convinced that a voluntary Canadian Wheat Board can become a viable commercial entity in two or three years.
“I think it has a tremendous opportunity to move forward,” Gerry Ritz told members of the Inland Terminals Association of Canada last week.
“Our legislation (mentions) a transition period of up to five years, but if farmers react as they possibly could … they may try to restructure it as a co-operative or a share-structured offering in year two or year three, and we’re open to that.”
Ritz said the new entity will be free to deal in all crops and is expected to offer forward contracting opportunities similar to those offered by line companies.
The voluntary CWB will be run by a board of five appointed directors.
Those directors will also be responsible for developing a plan to commercialize the new entity by 2017.
Ritz said the appointed directors now on CWB’s board of directors will likely form the board of the new voluntary entity. Appointed directors on the current CWB board include president and chief executive officer Ian White, David Carefoot, a former chief financial officer with Viterra, Alberta resident and agribusiness owner Ken Motiuk, former grain industry executive and consultant Bruce Johnson, and Manitoba farmer Glen Findlay, who has served on a variety of committees and panels related to agriculture.
“We’re looking for certain skill sets and of course the … existing appointed directors have those skill sets.
“Should some of them decide that they don’t want to be part of the new entity … we’ll certainly then look for someone else to take that position.”
Ritz did not rule out the possibility of the new entity being sold to a private company if that is what appointed directors deem most appropriate.
“The appointed directors would have to assess that … sit down and work out the business case and figure out if that’s in the best interest of farmers,” he said.
“It (the commercialization plan) does come across my desk at some point and we’ll decide (then) if that makes strategic sense.”
Ritz also told ITAC members that Ottawa would look at making changes to Canada’s grain grading and varietal registration systems once single desk marketing has been eliminated.
The goal is to ensure that all systems work seamlessly together in an efficient commercial system.
“We’re going to get the wheat board legislation through first and then start to look at what else needs to be done to streamline the grading system, the varietal registration (system) … the whole pot.”
He said Ottawa will seek direction from advisory groups on what changes would benefit the industry.
Ritz also suggested that key recommendations of the rail freight service review will likely be implemented by next August, although he cautioned that rail reforms are the responsibility of federal transport minister Denis Lebel.
“That’s transport, not (agriculture), but certainly that’s what we’re hopeful of doing because one does dovetail with the other.”
