WASHINGTON (Reuters) – A U.S. Department of Agriculture report predicted record U.S. soybean exports this marketing year and a smaller than expected corn stockpile.
The USDA said soybean exports will hit a record 1.445 billion bushels in 2009-10 and its end stocks number was unchanged at 190 million bu., a three-week supply and smaller than expectations of 208 million bu.
USDA raised its corn ending stocks number by 100 million bu. to 1.899 billion bu., which would be the largest in four years but not as big as expected. Analysts expected 1.992 billion bu.
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The reason for the stocks increase was a reduction in the amount of corn fed to livestock.
The corn and soybean marketing years end on Aug. 31.
“Just off the broad brush, I don’t see any reason to take this market down,” said Jack Scoville, analyst at The Price Futures Group. “Still, for (U.S.) corn and wheat, there’s a lot of ending stocks,” he said.
The U.S. wheat stockpile is forecast at 950 million bu., the largest in a decade, when the wheat marketing year ends on May 31.
“These stocks figures are so large compared to a few years ago…. it’s going to be hard to get anything going in the market” until the outlook for this year’s crops is clear, said consultant John Schnittker.
The initial market reaction was for soybeans to rise and corn and wheat to fall.
The report of large stocks came just a few days after another USDA report on farmers’ planting intentions that showed record large corn and soybean crops for the second year in a row are within reach.
On May 11, USDA will issue its first forecast of the winter wheat harvest.
USDA said strong export demand through March is projected to carry U.S. soybean exports 13 percent above the record of 1.283 billion bu. set in 2008-09. It was the eighth month in a row USDA boosted the forecast.
Traders said future U.S. exports will be limited by increases to already-bumper soybean crops in South America.
China is now forecast to buy 43.5 million tonnes of soybeans, up one million tonnes from the March estimate and more than half of the world market in 2009-10, USDA reported.
An upturn in wheat exports and feed use will whittle into the wheat surplus, now forecast at 950 million bu., up 45 percent in one year. Traders expected an ending figure of 992 million bu.
Turning to world production for 2009-10, USDA made minor changes to global wheat and coarse grain production but raised its oilseed production forecast to 436.7 million tonnes, up 1.4 million tonnes from March.
Higher soybean, peanut and cottonseed production more than offsets lower canola and sunflower seed production.
Global soybean production was increased 1.6 million tonnes to 257.5 million. Soybean production for Argentina was projected at 54 million tonnes, up one million from last month as favourable late-season weather improved yield prospects. Soybean production for Brazil was projected at 67.5 million tonnes, up 500,000 tonnes, also based on higher yields.
