(Reuters) — The U.S. hog herd grew modestly in the December-February quarter from a year earlier to a record high for that quarter.
Farmers cautiously added to herds while shoring up their bottom lines following the surge in hog numbers as the industry recovers from the porcine epidemic diarrhea outbreak that killed eight million pigs over three years, industry economists said.
“PEDv is much less of a problem than it was in recent years, but it’s not totally gone,” University of Missouri economist livestock Ron Plain said following the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s March 25 quarterly hog report.
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He said the report suggests hog and pork prices will rise as the year progresses but summer prices will still be lower than the same time last year.
The report showed the U.S. hog herd as of March 1 at 67.6 million head, topping the then record high for the quarter of 67.4 million a year earlier.
Analysts expected 67.626 million head, or 100.3 percent of the year-earlier herd.
The U.S. breeding herd stood at 5.980 million head, a marginal decrease from last year.
The average trade forecast was 6.016 million, or 100.6 percent of the previous year.
The March 1 supply of market-ready hogs for sale to packers was 61.7 million head, which was a slight gain from 61.4 million from March 1 last year.
Analysts had looked for a .3 percent gain, or 61.595 million head.
Analysts viewed the report as generally neutral because outcomes for the top three categories were nearly in line with forecasts.
However, they said the one percent bump in the lightweight hog category implies ample supplies through the summer.
Conversely, the June through August farrowings, which is the number of female hogs expected to give birth, were below what the trade is forecasting, suggesting fewer animals during the second half of 2016.
