The fear and loathing many Canadian farmers have felt in recent weeks as they read about the plans for a new United States farm bill might be calmed by events last week.
Farm bill planning had been an easy matter for American politicians comfortable in the expectation that a booming economy would provide huge budgetary surpluses.
With bulging federal coffers, who could turn down farmer calls for better safety nets and more crops included in assistance programs?
But now the White House budget office says the surplus will be “only” $158 billion US. While still a lot, that is $123 billion less than expected.
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The non-partisan Congressional Budget Office put the surplus even lower, at $153 billion.
The reason is the economy, which seems more mired and slower to rebound than expected. Also, U.S. president George W. Bush’s 10 year, $1.3 trillion tax cut sliced deeply into government revenue.
The smaller surplus will be entirely taken by the $157 billion earmarked for social security payments. The House of Representatives and the Bush administration have committed themselves to use all social security surpluses to pay down debt so that the U.S. is in better shape to pay benefits when baby boomers start to retire.
But when drafting new farm bill legislation, Congress had been working on the assumption that it would take $6.6 billion a year from the fat surplus, or $66 billion over the life of the bill to 2011, to add to established farm program spending.
Now it seems that money is no longer guaranteed.
Rather than a total 10-year forecast surplus of $5.6 trillion, the Congressional Budget Office now forecasts a $3.4 trillion surplus.
So the fight for extra money for American farmers is going to get a lot more intense.
How will new “counter cyclical” farm payments stand up to a new prescription drug benefit?
Will the Senate farm committee’s desire for a range of new conservation programs survive a battle over more money for defence and education?
Canadian pea, lentil and chickpea farmers were worrying that the Senate might include pulses in American farm programs, causing increased production that would drive down prices.
While nothing is certain yet, it appears American legislators must now be more frugal with their plans.
And Canadian farmers can breathe a sigh of relief.
