Bargain basement grain from the Black Sea region is again hurting world wheat prices, but early forecasts show that dry soil there might slash production next year.
Russia and Ukraine together harvested about 67.5 million tonnes of wheat this year, the largest since the bumper 71.1 million tonne crop of 2002-03 that surprised markets and pressured prices lower.
European farmers have complained recently that although Chicago wheat futures have risen because of production problems in North American, their price is moribund because of strong competition from Russian and Ukraine wheat in key North African and Asian markets.
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Trade issues existed long before U.S. president Donald Trump and his on-again, off-again tariffs came along, said panelists at a policy summit last month.
However, that situation might change in a few months when the market begins to look toward 2006-07 crop prospects.
This week, Ukraine officials said that winter wheat area there could fall to a record low 8.6 million acres, down from 15.6 million this past year. It is also dry in southern Russia and sowing progress there is behind normal.
In a report at the end of September, the U.S. Department of Agriculture notes that in the past Ukrainian farmers have been able to seed quickly in late fall if they do get moisture.
