MOSCOW, Russia (Reuters) – The extreme drought that slashed Russia’s grain crop in 2010 will not likely be repeated this year, although rainfall may be low in June and July, the country’s chief weather forecaster said.
“The probability is equal to less than 1/5,000 (0.02 percent),” Roman Vilfand, director of the Hydrometcentre weather forecasting service said May 12.
He added, however, a slight deficit of precipitation was expected in both European and Asian parts of Russia in June and July.
An extreme drought unrivalled in more than a century cut the 2010 crop to 61 million tonnes from 97 million in 2009 and 108 million in 2008.
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Lingering effects of the drought cut the area of winter grain sown to the 2011 crop to 38.3 million acres from some 44.5 million acres a year ago.
Vilfand said winter grain was developing this season in favourable conditions. Snow was plentiful over winter.
Slow snow melt in the spring brought abundant soil moisture, creating favourable conditions for plant development, he said.
The late spring brought a delay in the spring grain sowing campaign, which Vilfand believes may pick up.
“The delay, which is now seven to 10 days, is not critical,” he said. “We will have bread this year. But we have to remember that we have a very risky agriculture. A more precise forecast may be made in the end of June.”
He declined to confirm or deny the official grain crop forecast for this year of 85-90 million tonnes.
