The Canola Council of Canada is upbeat about the progress of its plan to produce 15 million tonnes of canola by 2015.
“One thing that’s clear over the last three years is that we’ve made another jump in terms of what farmers are putting in and farmers’ commitment to canola,” said council president JoAnne Buth.
The council established its ambitious plan to increase production and demand for Canadian canola in 2007.
In spite of setbacks caused by this year’s poor weather, Buth feels the 15 million tonne benchmark is still attainable.
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“We’re always going to see the weather fluctuations,” she said.
“Where we want to be is averaging 15 million tonnes with not a lot of fluctuations.”
Consistently good profits since 2007 have made canola a popular choice for farmers, and production increased to about 12 million tonnes in 2008 and 2009, up from nine million in 2006.
“That’s what we’re trying to do is to make sure that canola is profitable for growers so they put it in every year so we continue to have a large enough crop to export and crush,” Buth said.
However, bad weather and excessive moisture have set back production. In a recent estimate, Statistics Canada projected 2010 production at 10.4 million tonnes, a 16 percent decrease from last year.
Rick White, general manager of the Canadian Canola Growers Association, said potential seeded acreage was high heading into the last growing season.
“Of course, because of the extreme wet conditions, that plan by farmers to seed that much was certainly pulled back.”
Buth said she was disappointed by the lower than expected canola use in biodiesel production.
The 2007 plan called for significant increases in Canadian production of canola-based biodiesel, which have not materialized.
However, Buth said she is happy with the recent expansion of Canada’s domestic crushing capacity.
Three new canola seed crushing facilities have opened in Western Canada in the last 18 months.
While the increased domestic demand is encouraging, Buth expects international demand to be the main source of growth.
She said 20 percent of canola produced in Canada is consumed domestically. Canola already controls 60 percent of the Canadian vegetable oil market.
“It’s hard to see that there will be any great increases in Canada, although we’ll continue to promote canola in Canada,” she said.
“But it’s the opportunities in other countries essentially that will drive this demand.”
Buth said the United States is a key market. The desire to eliminate trans fats, strong interest in hybrid varieties and the diversion of some soybeans into the biodiesel industry are favourable signs that the U.S. could take more canola in years to come.
However, new seed varieties will be crucial to attaining the goal.
White said yields in a normal production year have increased to 30 bushels per acre, but 40 bu. per acre will be needed to achieve the sustained average production called for in the plan.
New varieties and traits will also be necessary to keep canola ahead of competition, notably soybeans.
