Another group of Canadians has returned from India with evidence that poor yields in the subcontinent will more than offset the increased acreage of the pulse crop there.
The implication: strong potential for another year of good red lentil and yellow pea exports to India.
Garth Paterson, executive director of the Saskatchewan Pulse Growers, returned from India last week.
One of his meetings there was with Ashutosh Sarkar, a lentil breeder with the International Centre for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas, an internationally funded research organization.
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Paterson said Sarkar’s assessment of the crop is credible because as a breeder he knows what to look for.
“And he actually gets out and walks through crops and was on the ground.
“Some of the reports are more ‘drive by’ we have been told.”
Sarkar said there has been inadequate rain throughout most of the subcontinent, including Bangladesh, Nepal, Pakistan and India.
“In all four of those regions, because of drought stress, he is anticipating lower than average yields,” Paterson said.
Red lentil yields could be down by 25 percent in Bangladesh and 20 percent in Nepal. He did not have a percentage figure for India and Pakistan, but productivity is expected to be down by a significant amount.
“I think this helps explain why we have seen red lentil prices strengthening over the last month,” Paterson said.
Turkey, the other key red lentil production region in the world, is the final piece of the puzzle. Last year it suffered from drought and the lentil crop was down significantly.
This year, plantings are average to above average and the condition so far is good, but the key to yield will be April.
“Because the crop sits in the ground through winter, even if you have low moisture in (January, February) going into March, if they get the moisture in March, April they can still pull off a good crop.”
But for now, the perception is that red lentil prices should hold, he said.
The Indian chickpea crop is also characterized by larger acreage but smaller yields.
“The net bottom line is that, at best, the chickpea harvest will be the same as last year,” Paterson said.
The Hindu Business Line, an Indian financial paper, reported that the trade estimates rabi chana, or chickpea, production will be 5.7 to 5.8 million tonnes, compared to 5.75 last year.
The newspaper has also reported the government intends to import three million tonnes of pulses in the coming year.
