Early predictions of a record world wheat crop in 2004-05 are dimming as dry soils in North America and Australia limit yield potential.
It is risky to forecast production when most acreage has yet to be seeded, but reports from around the world are starting to produce negative talk about crop prospects.
Just last month, the International Grains Council forecast global wheat production at 602 million tonnes, up 49 million from 2003 and one million more than the forecast consumption.
If correct, it would be the first time production exceeded consumption since 1999-2000.
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The yield estimates for wheat and soybeans were neutral to bullish, but these were largely a sideshow when compared with corn.
But things have been going downhill since then in some key production regions.
As this was being written the forecast called for welcome moisture in southern Alberta and Saskatchewan, but most of the region has been exceptionally dry this spring.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture was to issue its first 2004-05 U.S and world wheat crop and stocks estimates on May 12, after the Western Producer’s deadline. It was expected to drop its forecast of U.S. winter wheat production.
After showers a couple of weeks ago, the U.S. winter wheat belt began to bake, with highs around 30 C.
The USDA winter wheat condition report May 10 showed the crop at 45 percent good to excellent, down from 48 percent the week before and 52 percent last year.
Sparks Companies, an American agricultural consulting and analysis company, last week forecast U.S. winter wheat production at 39.87 million tonnes, down from 46.46 million tonnes in 2003.
Moisture conditions in U.S. spring wheat areas have also worsened recently and many analysts think farmers have switched some spring wheat acres to higher valued corn and soybeans.
Australia’s national weather bureau last week said large sections of eastern Australia had returned to drought.
Reuters reports that Australian grain brokers are now talking about a 20-21 million tonne crop from the winter wheat now being seeded, down from the official 22.9 million tonnes forecast. The dryness there could also affect canola and malting barley production.
Most of Europe has much better soil moisture than last year, when drought and blistering heat drove production to 90.5 million tonnes, down 13.4 million tonnes from the year before.
But northern France has been dry and regular rain is needed to maintain yields.
