Grain prices have settled into a sideways to lower trading range as the markets become comfortable with the early prospects for adequate production.
Our story on page 13 details conditions around the world, noting concerns for Australian wheat production are rising, but are not worrisome enough to start pressuring prices higher. Australia experienced its warmest April on record with the temperature about three degrees above average.
Closer to home, the American winter wheat crop is in better condition than it was at this time last year. The United States Department of Agriculture reported that 63 percent of the crop was in good to excellent condition on May 1.
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That was down a bit from the previous week, but much better than the 48 percent rating last year at the same time.
USDA said 30 percent of the winter wheat crop had headed, up from last year’s 18 percent, but about equal to the five-year average.
There were concerns last weekend that spring frost might nip winter wheat but those worries did not materialize.
The U.S. spring wheat crop is 61 percent seeded, a little slower than last year, but faster than the five-year average.
The U.S. corn crop is also being seeded at a good pace. As of May 1, 52 percent of the crop was in the ground, compared to last year when seeding was exceptionally early and 59 percent was sown. The five-year average is 45 percent.
Early seeding was seen to be a major factor in last year’s record U.S. corn yield of 160.4 bushels per acre, compared to 142.2 bu. the year before. The five-year average is 136.1 bu.
Soybean planting has also begun with eight percent sown, slightly behind last year’s pace.
Last week, the USDA reported that it had found the first case of Asian soybean rust on a soybean plant this year. The plant was a volunteer in Georgia. The USDA has also found the disease on kudzu weeds in Florida this year. Florida and Georgia are not major soybean producers, but given prevailing winds, they would present a source of infection that could blow north into the eastern portion of the soybean belt, including Indiana and Ohio.
Greg Tylka, a plant pathologist at Iowa State University, told Reuters News Agency that Iowa, the soybean powerhouse, would be more at risk if the disease turned up in Louisiana or Texas where the wind would be more likely to blow it into the western soybean growing area.
But it is still too early to say whether the disease will become a significant problem. Even if it does spread, there has been a strong campaign to educate growers about what it looks like and how to control it with fungicides.
