Canadian farmers will plant substantially more wheat and durum this spring, according to FarmLink Marketing Solutions.
Analysts at the Winnipeg farm consulting firm predict wheat acres across Canada will jump to 18.1 million acres, up 7.7 percent from 2007. Durum acres should increase 16.3 percent, they said, rising to 5.6 million acres compared to 4.8 million in 2007.
FarmLink released the numbers in advance of the Statistics Canada seeding intentions survey, which is scheduled to come out April 21.
Looking at the other major Canadian crops, FarmLink expects canola acres to increase 3.2 percent in 2008, barley to drop 6.1 percent and oats to drop 13.1 percent.
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“Oats is pretty unique, in that it’s one of very few crops whose carryout is larger this year than last,” said Brenda Tjaden-Lepp, chief analyst with FarmLink.
The acreage estimates are based on information collected from FarmLink’s network of marketing advisers on the Prairies, plus crunching the carryout numbers and ranking the return from each crop.
Tjaden-Lepp said the predicted boost in durum acres comes primarily from a lack of stocks and the corresponding high price.
“Outside of Western Canada, there have been trades in durum at $20 a bushel,” she said. “In the last six months, $16 to $18 has been common, because the stuff is just so scarce.”
With the CWB 2007-08 Pool Return Outlook at $14 a bu. at port and 2008-09 at about $12.40, three times what farmers are accustomed to, the signal to plant durum is glowing, Tjaden-Lepp said.
Her numbers for durum correlate with the acreage estimates from Saskatchewan Agriculture, released April 8. Volunteer crop reporters across the province expect farmers to plant more durum, which adds up to 400,000 more acres in Saskatchewan, a 10 percent increase from 2007.
The department predicts Saskatchewan acreage increases of three percent for spring wheat and 4.5 percent for canola. Those seeding intentions could change, however, depending on moisture conditions.
“Are they going to get moisture in the south? Are they going to lose the snow in the north?” said Terry Bedard, who compiles the acreage data for the department.
Flax is another crop that should be more appealing to farmers this year. FarmLink expects high prices will push acres up by 41.8 percent.
The increase in flax acres is a rebound from the 1.3 million acres in 2007, Tjaden-Lepp said. She predicts Canadian acreage of 1.85 million acres this year, close to the five-year average of 1.9 million.
