CHICAGO (Reuters) – Brazil and Argentina look set to produce record soybean crops for 2009-10 and sizable corn crops, although heavy rains in Brazil could spread soy rust, a respected U.S. analyst said Feb. 3.
Michael Cordonnier, president of Soybean and Corn Advisor, a Chicago-area research firm specializing in South America, estimated Brazil’s 2009-10 soybean production at 66 million tonnes.
The figure is above the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s forecast for a record crop of 65 million tonnes.
Cordonnier pegged Argentina’s soybean crop at 52 million tonnes, below USDA’s forecast of 53 million. USDA was scheduled to release updated estimates Feb. 9.
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“I can’t see how either of those crops can be derailed at this point,” Cordonnier said.
He estimated overall 2009-10 soybean production in South America, including Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Bolivia and Uruguay, at 128 million tonnes – more than 13 million tonnes above the continent’s previous record soy crop two years ago.
“It’s going to be a record. It’s just a question of how big of a record,” he said.
Brazil and Argentina are the world’s largest exporters of corn and soybeans. The U.S. prospects for huge South American crops have pressured Chicago Board of Trade corn and soy futures for weeks as the Southern Hemisphere harvest approaches.
