MOSCOW, Russia (Reuters) — Russian farmers are expected to harvest the largest grain crop since the breakup of the Soviet Union, and they hope to take advantage of poor crops in Western Europe.
Russia’s agriculture ministry expects the country to harvest up to 110 million tonnes, of which 70 million tonnes have already been threshed before drying and cleaning.
Of the grain total, wheat is expected to account for a little more than 70 million tonnes.
On the export side, the U.S. Department of Agriculture expects Russia to beat the European Union and become the world’s largest wheat exporter in the 2016-17 marketing season, which started July 1.
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China purchased just over 20 million tonnes of wheat, corn, barley and sorghum last year, that is well below the 60 million tonnes purchased in 2021-22.
Russian farmers are not yet rushing to sell their grain, hoping that the price will improve.
However, the lack of working capital and storage capacity may soon prompt some farmers to start selling their grain more actively.
Global wheat buyers will likely have to turn to Russia more often this year because the European Union’s exports will be down, mostly because of problems in France where rain and cool weather have taken a toll on production.
France’s exports of soft wheat outside the EU will fall to 4.8 million tonnes in 2016-17 from an estimated 12.5 million last season, agricultural group InVivo forecast last week.
Shipments within the EU were expected to fall to 6.7 million tonnes from 7.5 million, which would give total exports of 11.5 million tonnes, down about 40 percent from last season and the lowest volume since 2001-02.
“This year, France’s traditional clients will be supplied with other wheat origins (Black Sea, northern Europe, North America, Argentina) and with French wheat when opportunities arise,” InVivo said in a statement.
French analyst Strategie Grains has slashed its estimate of France’s soft wheat crop by more than six million tonnes to 29.9 million for what it called a “disastrous” harvest.
France produced a record 41 million tonnes in 2015.
Overall, Strategie Grains expects an EU soft wheat crop of 137.9 million tonnes, down nine percent from the record 151.4 million in 2015.
Strategie Grains estimated 66 percent of the EU soft wheat harvest as being of milling grade, a drop of five points year on year.
The final size and quality of France’s crop is still unclear as harvest progress in north France remains slow after repeated rain since July.
A third of France’s wheat area remained unharvested Aug. 9, agricultural group InVivo said.
Strategie Grains said there were very poor readings for specific weights, one measure of grain quality, but high protein content. Traders said wetness in the north could cause last-minute problems with Hagberg falling numbers, another quality measurement.
Recent rain in Germany and Poland has also delayed harvest and raised quality concerns in those countries.
