WINNIPEG (Reuter) – Oilseeds and special crops are forecast to gain ground at the expense of wheat, barley and oats in 1997-98, Agriculture Canada said earlier this week.
“For 1997-98, area seeded in Canada is expected to shift from wheat, barley and oats into oilseeds and specialty crops,” Agriculture Canada said in its March supply and demand report.
While wheat, coarse grain and oilseed prices are expected to decline in 1997-98 on rising world output, values should remain well above the levels of the early 1990s, the government said.
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“Projected lower Canadian exports of durum, barley and corn are expected to be more than offset by higher exports of wheat (except durum), oats, canola, flax and soybeans,” it said.
The condition of the 1997 U.S. winter wheat crop, the size of spring seeded crops in major producing nations, the aggressiveness of European Union and U.S. export subsidies and China’s import demands will all affect prices, it said.
Wheat (except durum) output in 1997-98 should drop despite higher carry-in stocks. Exports should rise in 1997-98 because of reduced competition from Australia and Argentina and carry-out should fall to a historic low of six million tonnes.
Aussies see record canola
CANBERRA, Australia (Reuter) – Australia is set to produce another record canola crop in 1997-98 as growers respond to still relatively favorable returns, the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics said last week.
However, the bureau said world oilseed prices are expected to fall in 1997-98 as production expands and stocks rise.
It expects Australia to produce about 2.017 million tonnes of oilseeds in 1997-98, up 18 percent from expected output of 1.71 million tonnes in 1996-97.
Asia grows own food
SAN DIEGO, Calif. (Reuter) – Too much self-sufficiency in Asia could be devastating for the United States grain industry, the head of the agricultural consulting firm Sparks Companies Inc. warned American agribusiness leaders last week.
Carroll Brunthaver, president and chief executive officer of Sparks, based in Memphis, Tenn., said U.S. policy makers should avoid encouraging more self-reliance in Asia, especially China.
“Asia is so important to this industry … . We have to be careful we don’t do anything to force them to be more self-reliant and turn their backs on trade,” Brunthaver said.
Not renewing most favorable nation status for China would be a big mistake, he added, and said negotiators have to be careful in ongoing talks with China over its entry into the World Trade Organization.
He said officials need to make sure they are not jeopardizing long-term demand for U.S. products by insisting that China make short-term market access changes.
He added that reports by well-known agricultural economist Lester Brown that China’s food demands will grow dramatically over the next few years and could drain the world of surplus grain stocks have actually been a disservice to the United States by pointing out to China that it needs to increase its agricultural production.
Wheat marketing a priority
BUENOS AIRES, Argentina (Reuter) – Argentina’s agriculture secretary Felipe Sol announced last week a government drive for the country’s wheat producers to upgrade their marketing techniques and sell their product according to improved quality scales.
“I want to create a long-term wheat policy,” he said, adding challenges include creating the mechanisms for “exporters to sell different qualities of wheat at different prices.”
An issue to be addressed is deciding how the nation’s grain storage facilities can be modified to handle marketing of a revamped range of separate wheat qualities.
Argentina must develop “a brand and a clear identity for its wheat,” Sol said.
One of the government’s objectives is to create a new, high quality grade to be known as “silver”, or “plata” in Spanish, but its precise characteristics have still to be determined.
U.S. trade surplus down
WASHINGTON, D.C. (Reuter) – The U.S. trade surplus in agricultural commodities was $2.06 billion (U.S.) in January, down from $2.31 billion in December, the commerce department said last week.
Wheat exports rose in January by $44 million to $301 million. January also saw higher exports of bakery products, vegetables, meat and poultry, animal feeds, and fruits and frozen juices.
It saw lower exports of corn, soybeans, rice and raw cotton. Corn exports were down $61 million to $633 million, soybeans were down $92 million to $571 million, and raw cotton exports were down $89 million to $202 million.
