We have made changes to the markets data on page 8, which we hope will be of interest.
On the grains side, to provide a window on U.S. elevator prices we have expanded the International Grain Price section. The selection of port prices remains mostly the same except we have dropped the Argentine wheat price.
Directly below that we have listed the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s reported northeastern Montana elevator per bushel prices for No. 1 dark northern spring 14 percent protein wheat, No. 1 durum 13 percent, feed barley and malting barley. The USDA reports barley prices in dollars per 100 pounds. We have converted that to a bushel price using a 48 lb. bu. weight.
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No special crop fireworks expected
farmers should not expect fireworks in the special crops market due to ample supplies.
To make room for this, we have removed the canola board crush margin listing. If you want to continue to follow this number, the Winnipeg Commodity Exchange website www.wce.ca reports it under its “contract and market info” heading.
In the livestock listings, we have split the slaughter and trade information, creating separate cattle/beef and hogs/pork listings.
The Canada-U.S. exchange rate has shifted toward the middle of the page.
Turning to the week’s grain
markets, wheat showed surprising strength against a general downward trend.
Corn and soy edged lower because of U.S. harvest pressure, improved seeding weather in South America and a retreat from peak crude oil prices. Wheat also had been in a downward trend but was jarred higher when Russian officials said that country’s tariff on wheat exports might be 30 percent in November, not 10 percent as previously thought.
That moved wheat futures up the daily limit on Oct. 19. They rose again Oct. 22 on rumours that the tariff might go as high as 50 percent to restrain exports and help control domestic food price inflation.
The tariff could throw into doubt the USDA’s forecast of Russian wheat exports at 12 million tonnes.
But the rally will likely to be short lived. Attention will likely return to expectations of larger wheat pro-duction next year, a good Argentine wheat crop now being harvested and thoughts that major wheat buyers have already met a lot of their needs.
Soaring ocean freight costs also work against higher wheat prices
The Baltic Exchange’s dry freight Index, which gauges the strength of seaborne trade in dry commodities such as grain and coal, was around 7,000 at the beginning of September. Huge demand from Asia for raw materials had pushed the index to 10,798 by Oct. 19.
Rates for Panamax size ships from the Pacific Northwest to Japan were about $91-$95 US per tonne of grain last week. In late September they were about $73 and in late August only $60.
