Statistics Canada puts total canola stocks at slightly less than 11.36 million tonnes, which is up from 8.79 million last year
The most recent Canadian grain stock estimates are in line with market expectations.
On Feb. 7, Statistics Canada issued its report on stocks as of Dec. 31, 2022, which highlighted notable increases in most grains and further signalled a recovery from the 2021 drought.
“Stocks reports are important because they confirm the production numbers for crops like canola. For wheat and barley, it confirms production, but it also gives us an idea of domestic feed usage for the first five months of the crop year,” said Winnipeg-based independent trader Jerry Klassen.
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The yield estimates for wheat and soybeans were neutral to bullish, but these were largely a sideshow when compared with corn.
He said there were no big surprises in the stocks report and as expected it wasn’t a big market mover. He deemed the report to be neutral for canola and spring wheat, while somewhat supportive of durum.
Klassen said trade predictions on canola were 10.70 million to 12.60 million tonnes, with an average of 11.70 million. The report pegged total canola stocks at a little less than 11.36 million. A year ago, StatCan reported December stocks at 8.79 million tonnes and the five-year average is at 13.50 million.
The trader noted the average call on oats was “on the money” at 3.6 million with StatCan estimating a shade less. The federal agency’s number is also significantly higher than stocks from December 2021, which were 1.88 million tonnes. Oats also exceeded the five-year average of 2.51 million tonnes.
Klassen also said the trade expectations for wheat and durum were also close to the StatCan numbers. The agency placed all wheat stocks at 22.29 million tonnes, surpassing the 16.82 million from the previous December but a little below the five-year average of 23.52 million.
Durum was estimated to be just short of 3.6 million tonnes, better than last year’s 2.53 million. However, current stocks were well short of the five-year average of 4.47 million tonnes.
