A wave of protectionism seems to be sweeping through agriculture.
In some cases it is politically motivated and in others it is a rational response to disease threats.
It is happening globally and on a range of commodities, but the greatest impact might be felt by livestock producers, whose hopes for a better year in 2003 might be clouded by international events.
The latest problems are developing in chicken and pork trade between the United States and Mexico.
Many Mexican farmers feel they are getting bruised as the country’s last protective agricultural tariffs come off to comply with the North American Free Trade Agreement.
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Some Mexican farm groups are urging president Vicente Fox to renegotiate NAFTA to reinstate some protection.
It is in this context that the Mexican pork council has complained about American pork products. It says U.S. pork entered Mexico at unfairly low prices, harming local producers. American producers deny the claim.
The Mexican pork council wants its government to impose anti-dumping duties. A preliminary decision is expected in May.
Mexico also decided to cast its net fairly wide when protecting its poultry industry from Exotic Newcastle Disease, which recently swept through California and Nevada.
Unlike Canada, which has blocked chicken imports only from confirmed disease states, Mexico will halt imports from states that border California and Nevada, including Oregon, Arizona, Idaho and Utah.
Mexico is an important market for American chicken and pork and if these two situations cause a sharp restriction in U.S. exports, it could start a reprise of last year’s meat surplus problem.
The European Union, Russia and Ukraine also have trade disputes.
Fearful of the rising tide of wheat exports from the former Soviet Union, the EU has limited wheat imports from that area.
In retaliation, Russia and Ukraine are limiting the amount of meat that can be imported.
Russia is one of the world’s biggest meat importers and reduced access could cause all sorts of disruptions in meat trade as exporters try to find other outlets for their meat.
These issues highlight the growing importance of international trade in livestock markets.
The export market has been a blessing for Canada’s growing beef and hog industries, but there are no guarantees.
For more on this topic, see Barbara Duckworth’s story from the Banff Pork Seminar on page 15.
