Special crops outlook
Yellow mustard seed has been the star performer of the special crop field this year and the November Statistics Canada field crop production estimate has reinforced its strength.
StatsCan lumps yellow, brown and oriental mustards together and reports an estimated crop of 237,000 tonnes, down from trade estimates of 290,000-300,000.
Brian Clancey of Stat Publishing, a Vancouver-based analyst of special crop markets, says given the bullishness of the mustard market, the StatsCan report probably won’t push prices higher.
However, it will reinforce the market’s foundation for the rest of the crop year, making a price decline unlikely.
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Prairies have variable soil moisture conditions
The dry weather in the west was welcome for preserving grain quality and advancing harvest, but it has resulted in very dry soil moisture conditions.
That means when producers start planning their crop mix for 1997, mustard will be an attractive option, especially if they can lock in prices.
Clancey believes mustard area will climb to levels not seen since 1994 – close to 800,000 acres. In 1996, farmers seeded about 596,000 acres to mustard.
Minimal impact
Clancey believes the StatsCan report will have a minimal impact on other special crop markets.
The report set canaryseed production at 267,300 tonnes, more than what the trade had estimated. However, because canaryseed can be stored for long periods, farmers can support prices by selling only enough to meet demand.
For example, Clancey says recent bids of 12 cents a pound are rejected and product only moves when the price is about 13 cents.
Given the relative weakness of canaryseed prices compared to a year ago, and a fair amount of crop that will be carried over into the next crop year, he believes farmers will cut back acreage in 1997.
The StatsCan report estimated pea and lentil production at slightly less than what the trade was expecting, but not enough to influence the market.
The lentil market particularly is weighed down by large production. Unlike canaryseed, lentils can’t be stored for a long time, so product goes on the market no matter what the price.
Clancey estimated lentil stocks at the beginning of this crop year were about 117,000 tonnes and will rise to 123,000 at the start of the 1997-98 crop year. Dry pea production was estimated at 1.241 million tonnes by StatsCan.
Although it’s a big crop, Clancey believes the attributes of peas in a crop rotation, like nitrogen fixation and improved soil tilth, will mean lots of acres in the crop next year.
