It looks like special crop producers have an opportunity for good, if not spectacular prices for their grains in 1996-97, particularly if they don’t press too much on the market at once.
That’s a consensus of analysts interviewed for this column including Ray McVicar of Saskatchewan Agriculture, Rob Tisdale of Xcan Grain Ltd. in Winnipeg and Dave Walker of Walker Seeds in Star City, Sask.
Dry peas saw a 25 percent drop in acreage this year, but production is not expected to fall as much because of generally good growing conditions. In 1995, production was hurt by a drought in northwest Saskatchewan.
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About 70 percent of the production is yellow peas and there should be a good supply of No. 2 and better quality.
That means there won’t be much of a premium for edible peas over feed prices.
European demand sets the pace for the feed pea market. On the one hand, the competition is soy meal and most production news out of the U.S. has supported soy prices. On the other hand, there are good feed grain supplies in most places that buy Canadian peas. So the outlook is for steady prices, perhaps with the spread widening in favor of green peas after the new year.
The news on Eston lentils continues to be bad. There was a large carryover from last year and good production this growing season so Canada will have about two year’s supply of Estons on hand.
Consequently, Walker says, “the price is going in the tank.”
They are down to about 14 cents a pound, compared to about 20 cents in 1995.
The news for Lairds is better. Some came off before the rains so there should be a good balance of grades. The outlook was for No. 1 Lairds to perhaps strengthen a little in January and for No. 2 to hold steady.
A big crop of canaryseed went in the ground this spring. Statistics Canada forecast 575,000 acres in June, up more than 50 percent from 1995. That hit the market right between the eyes and prices dropped from around 26 cents a pound to about 17 cents now.
The trade doubted that number, estimating acreage closer to 450,000.
Walker believes the late spring and the hot weather of August will produce below-normal yields.
Tisdale noted that Canada dominates the export market and Europe is the main buyer. He feels if farmers here manage their sales to ration supply, prices could hold steady.
Walker is a little more bullish and says after exporters get through supplies they now have, perhaps by December, then prices could recover to 19-21 cents.
Mustard seed was planted on about 610,000 acres, down slightly from last year, but yields appear good, promising a large crop.
Oriental and brown mustard prices seem steady as supply and demand will be pretty well in balance.
Yellow mustard is looking at good demand right now, partly because some buyers balked at high prices last spring and must buy now to meet needs.
But if growers push the crop on the market, prices will drop fast.
However, the good outlook for canola prices is a safety net for mustard. Users must keep prices high enough to convince farmers not to switch to other crops.
