Saskatchewan seeding progress was likely in the low 60 percent range as this column was written June 7.The closest similar year was 2007 when 75 percent of the crop had been seeded by May 27, so it wasn’t as bad as this year.Weather turned hot in July 2007 when the late developing canola crop was flowering, hurting yield. But the heat pushed maturity ahead. In the southern part of the province, a dry August allowed harvest to wrap up in early September, but rain and cool conditions extended the harvest in the northern part of the grain belt.In the spring, Saskatchewan farmers intended to seed about 7.4 million acres to canola. They wound up seeding about 7.25 million and harvested about 7.2 million.Saskatchewan’s average canola yield was 24.2 bushels an acre, down from 27.6 bu. the year before and spring wheat yielded 28.1 bu., down from 31.8 bu. in 2006. That was about a 12 percent decrease for both from the previous year.The situation this year is worse. There is more water in fields and it is later in the year.Another major difference was that agriculture was entering a boom in 2007 that took people’s minds off the crop problem.There was a general explosion in commodity prices. In crops, years of inadequate wheat production coupled with rising corn demand for ethanol production sparked an unprecedented price rally.At the start of July, new crop canola futures in Winnipeg were valued at about $404 per tonne and by December had risen about 25 percent.The asking price for spring wheat at port was about $290 per tonne in July and had risen to about $475 by December.They continued soaring into the first half of 2008.There is no prospect for such a rally this year.Crops in the U.S. Midwest are developing in near ideal conditions.There are minor problems elsewhere in the world, but generally the outlook for crops in Europe, the Black Sea region and Australia look average and the prospects for the Argentine wheat crop to be seeded soon also look good.Economic problems in Europe are keeping a lid on the prices of other commodities such as oil, so there is no help from that avenue.You can never write off a crop in June, but it is fair to say that in many parts of Saskatchewan, farmers face many challenges between now and harvest.But things can change for the better. Last July, some people thought the slow crop was headed for disaster. One analyst forecast the Canadian canola crop would fall to 9.2 million tonnes.But July was cool at flowering and the frost held back in August and September. Indeed, September was the best month of the summer.Canada produced 11.8 million tonnes of canola. Average yield was almost a record.We might get lucky in the production department again.
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