WASHINGTON, D.C. (Reuters) – The U.S. corn stockpile hit its largest level in four years as the fall harvest opened last month.
The large stocks will serve as a buffer against a smaller-than-expected crop that has driven prices to their highest levels in two years.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture reported Sept. 30 that the stockpile totalled 1.708 billion bushels Sept. 1, up 21 percent, or 296 million bu., from what traders had expected.
Don Roose, analyst with U.S. Commodities in West Des Moines, Iowa, called the figure “a bearish shocker” and “a big cushion for a shortfall this year.… Now you can handle a lower yield.”
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The USDA forecasts a crop of 13.16 billion bu. for 2010, which would be a record harvest but smaller than it estimated earlier in the year.
Analysts expect the USDA will have to lower its yield estimate in its Oct. 8 report.
A poll of analysts in late September pegged yields at 160.2 bu. an acre, 1.4 percent below the USDA estimate, which would mean a crop of 12.976 billion bu.
Traders had expected Sept. 1 corn stocks of 1.412 billion bu., saying an early harvest might swell the supply slightly.
The USDA pegged the carry-over from the 2009 crop at 1.386 billion bu. For its stocks report, it surveys all known commercial warehouses and 66,000 growers.
“It will not be as big a surprise as you think that we ‘found’ 300 million bu. of corn on the stock (report),” ABN Amro analyst Charlie Sernatinger said. “This is likely the early harvest that hit us.”
Added Roy Huckabay, analyst with the Linn Group: “The reality of the situation is that the corn number is a bogus number. It is because of the early harvest and the pulling of new crop back into the old crop S&Ds (supply and demand numbers).”
However, a USDA economist disagreed.
No new crop corn numbers were included in the Sept. 1 stocks figure, said Anthony Prillaman, who is in charge of the report.
“We make every effort to make sure that new crop corn is not being reported. Questionnaires are designed to only pick up old crop corn, and the data goes through several edits. If we see something that looks a little peculiar, we call back and verify.”
The corn crop matured earlier than usual thanks to an early planting season. Six percent of the crop was harvested as of Sept. 5, two percentage points more than usual.
In a companion report, the USDA said farmers had harvested 2.224 billion bu. of wheat this year, two percent less than traders expected and two percent below the USDA’s previous estimate. Yield was a record 46.7 bu. an acre.
The USDA listed durum wheat at 151 millionbu., uptwopercentfromitsprevious estimate and from 2009. Spring wheat was listed at 627 million bu., down slightly from the preceding estimate and the third largest crop on record.
However, the USDA said it may revise its figures for durum and spring wheat Nov. 9 because large amounts of land were unharvested in the northern Plains when it surveyed growers in early September.
