The winter wheat crop in the United States is coming out of dormancy and looks much better than it did at this time last year.
Kansas grows the most winter wheat of any state. Its March 5 crop and weather report said 94 percent of the state has adequate to surplus moisture. Last year only five percent had adequate moisture and 50 percent was rated very short.
The state said that only seven percent of the crop was in poor to very poor shape, 29 percent fair and 64 percent good to excellent.
Read Also
Canada-U.S. trade relationship called complex
Trade issues existed long before U.S. president Donald Trump and his on-again, off-again tariffs came along, said panelists at a policy summit last month.
Last year, 27 percent was poor to very poor, 46 percent fair and 27 percent good to excellent.
Other key winter wheat states are also in better shape than last year, but not quite as good as Kansas.
Nebraska’s crop is 59 percent good to excellent compared to 42 percent last year.
Oklahoma’s crop is 58 percent good to excellent compared to four percent good and zero percent excellent last year.
Texas is 42 percent good to excellent compared to four percent good and zero percent excellent last year.
Western Nebraska, western Oklahoma and parts of Texas need more moisture.
Farther north, North and South Dakota could also use more moisture before seeding.
The United States Department of Agriculture expects that total U.S. wheat acreage will increase 2.7 million acres to 60 million this year. That is a combination of a 3.5 million acre increase in winter wheat area and an 800,000 acre decrease in spring wheat area.
There is potential for more acres to switch from spring wheat to corn. USDA estimates that gross revenue for corn will almost double to about $550 per acre in 2007-08 compared to less than $200 per acre for wheat. That is a strong incentive to replant with corn any winter wheat acres that don’t look good this spring.
North Dakota State University estimates that net returns over variable costs for corn in that state will be about $140 compared to wheat at about $90 per acre, again a strong incentive to go with corn.
The key limiting factor on corn acres might be fertilizer supply, with some in the industry saying there is enough for about 86 million corn acres.
That would be well up from the 78.3 million sown last year, but less than the 90 million, which is the high end of the trade’s speculation for 2007.
