Russia is expected to harvest 56 million tonnes
MOSCOW/KIEV (Reuters) — Mild spring temperatures and rain are creating favourable conditions for this year’s wheat crop in Russia and Ukraine, partially making up for a dry autumn.
Farmers had faced cold and dry weather conditions when they seeded the 2015 winter wheat crop last autumn.
“Recent rains in the central and south regions (of Russia) should have improved the situation,” said Dmitry Rylko, the head of the IKAR agriculture consultancy.
Farmers in both countries have managed to keep the seeding area unchanged despite higher costs, which increased as local currencies weakened because of the conflict in eastern Ukraine, western sanctions over Russia’s role in the crisis and weak oil prices.
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Conditions for winter wheat are perfect in Ukraine, said Tetyana Adamenko, head of the agriculture department at Ukraine’s state-run weather centre.
“A mild winter and spring have created ground for a good harvest.”
Many analysts’ wheat crop forecasts have been upgraded since the middle of winter because fewer plantings were lost than they originally expected.
IKAR expects that Russia will harvest 56 million tonnes of wheat this year, of which 20 million tonnes will be available for export, when the new 2015-16 marketing year starts on July 1.
In January, IKAR had expected a 50 million tonne wheat crop.
SovEcon, another Moscow-based consultancy, sees the wheat harvest at slightly more than 50 million tonnes, down from 60 million tonnes in 2014.
Russia lost 10 percent of its winter grains after snows melted, according to Russia’s weather forecaster. Farmers are currently seeding spring grains and have already completed 3.3 percent of planned area on 2.47 million acres as of April 2, which is the same as last year.
In Ukraine, the 2015 wheat harvest is likely to come in between 21 and 22 million tonnes, Adamenko said.
The country harvested 24.1 million tonnes of wheat in 2014, according to official data, which is higher than most analysts’ estimates.
One trader said he could upgrade his 2015 Ukraine wheat crop forecast by one million tonnes from his current estimate to 21.5 million tonnes thanks to favourable spring weather conditions for wheat seeding.
Winter grain in Ukraine is in good or satisfactory condition on 16.56 million acres, or 85 percent of the whole area.
However, 15 percent is in weak condition and .2 percent was lost after the winter, according to Ukragroconsult.
