The expectation is almost too much to take.
It looks so good you don’t want to talk about it for fear of jinxing it.
The “it” is Saskatchewan’s crop and if the weather co-operates for just a few more weeks there are going to be a lot of smiling faces in the province.
As we have reported through this growing season, Alberta and Saskatchewan generally have good crops this year while, sadly, large areas of Manitoba didn’t get seeded or were flooded out.
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Saskatchewan Agriculture is now the first agriculture ministry to stick out its neck and estimate the size of the provincial crop. Statistics Canada will have its official estimate of the national crop Aug. 26.
The Sask Ag numbers are eye popping. The forecast of a 30-million tonne harvest is 26 percent greater than the 10-year average and 24 percent bigger than last year.
Another good thing is that unlike last year when crop development was way behind normal, this year the crop is maturing nicely.
The crop report for the week ending Aug. 7 said that harvest had begun with two percent of the crop swathed and one percent combined.
The tension builds with each weather forecast. As this was written Aug. 8, the Environment Canada five-day forecast was calling for lows in the high single digits.
If they don’t drop much below that, the farm income situation could look much better in the coming months.
For a rough example let’s look at the revenue from an acre of wheat. Last year, let’s say it met the provincial average and yielded 30 bushels. After the frost it graded No. 4. Checking the Pool Return Outlook, that got a payment of about $2 a bushel at the elevator, producing gross revenue of a measly $60 an acre.
This year, the Sask Ag forecast yield is about 35 bu. an acre. The PRO for No. 1, 12.5 percent protein is about $3.65 per bu., producing gross revenue of about $128 per acre. Why, that might actually cover costs.
But that is counting the chickens before they hatch.
Best to lay low and pray for heat.
