It looks like canola and barley will battle it out this winter for increased spring seeding acreage.
We’ve seen seed and input suppliers say that farmers are preparing for a big jump in canola, market analysts warn that too much exuberance in canola could generate an oversupply and maltsters worry about an adequate supply of designated barley in the coming crop year.
Agriculture Canada released its forecast of 2007 acreage last week, saying Canadian farmers will plant more canola, barley and oats and less wheat, flax, peas and beans this spring.
Read Also
Canada-U.S. trade relationship called complex
Trade issues existed long before U.S. president Donald Trump and his on-again, off-again tariffs came along, said panelists at a policy summit last month.
The forecast was not based on a survey but on Agriculture Canada’s analysis based on expected net returns per acre following projected 2007 input costs, trend yields and current prices. Changes in markets or weather could result in major changes.
These projections indicate that canola, malting barley and Canada Prairie Spring wheat have the highest potential net returns of the major western Canadian crops.
Agriculture Canada forecasts wheat area to decline 10 percent to about 20 million acres, flax drop by 36 percent to 1.28 million and peas by five percent to 3.3 million. That would free up about three million acres to go into other crops.
Ag Canada sees about two million additional acres going into barley, an increase of 21 percent to 11.5 million. About 1.5 million acres will be added to canola, an increase of 11 percent to 14.76 million, and about 655,000 acres will be added to durum, an increase of 15 percent to five million.
On the special crop side, the department was a bit surprising in its lentil outlook, which sees acreage holding about steady with last year. That runs against the sentiment at Crop Production Week in Saskatoon early in January, where there was disappointment in this year’s lentil prices and an expectation of reduced seeded area.
At this point there is lots of room for changing sentiment about 2007 seeding.
Keep your eye out for events and reports that could tip the balance to a new direction.
On the weather side, watch for changes in South America, Europe and India. The wheat crop in the latter is entering its flowering period and there are indications it might coincide with a drier trend, opening the possibility of inadequate domestic supply and another year of imports.
Brazil and Argentina’s soybean crops have progressed well so far, but it is now getting a bit dry in Argentina.
A mild winter in Europe, Russia and Ukraine has many crops advanced in maturity but vulnerable if freezing arctic air moves in.
On the report front, the first Canadian Wheat Board pool return outlook for 2007-08 will be released Feb. 22.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s annual outlook meeting March 1-2 will likely shed a little light on how markets are shaping up. Then on March 30, the first official USDA forecast of American spring acreage will be delivered in the prospective planting report.
The first Statistics Canada survey of Canadian farmers’ seeding intentions comes out April 24.
