Wheat and feed grain demand appears to be weakening under the weight of the worldwide economic slowdown.
But oilseed demand is holding up.
Canadian exports of major grains as of Nov. 16 stood at 8.291 million tonnes, down seven percent from last year at the same time and 17 percent less than two years ago.
Major grains include wheat, durum, oats, barley, flax, canola, peas and corn.
Canola, however, is bucking the trend with a strong export pace, up about 33 percent over last year at the same time. Barley exports are 56 percent down from last year, durum movement is down about 15 percent and peas are down about 22 percent. Wheat is off about eight percent and oats are about equal to last year.
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China purchased just over 20 million tonnes of wheat, corn, barley and sorghum last year, that is well below the 60 million tonnes purchased in 2021-22.
Agriculture Canada had forecast a 10 percent increase in wheat exports and a 23 percent increase in durum exports so the slow start to the year is worrisome.
The department expected barley exports would be down 41 percent so the current slowness is not much of a surprise.
Agriculture Canada expects canola exports for the year will be up four percent, so the 33 percent increase so far supports prices.
It is a similar story in the U.S., where wheat and durum exports are down 16 percent so far, corn is down a whopping 57 percent and soybeans are up nine percent.
The United States Department of Agriculture had forecast wheat exports would be down 21 percent this year, so the experience so far is a little better than expected.
But corn exports were expected to drop 22 percent, so with exports down far more than expected so far, the USDA might have to revise its numbers.
The anemic wheat and corn exports are partly attributable to strong exports from the Black Sea region.
Russia and Ukraine have each exported about 10 million tonnes of grain so far this year. At the same point last year, Ukraine had exported almost no wheat.
A lot of the wheat moving from the Black Sea is feed, displacing American corn on world markets.
U.S. soybean exports were forecast to be down, so the strong exports this year support the market.
China continues to be the biggest buyer of American soybeans. The government in Beijing is trying to support Chinese farmers’ incomes by buying domestic soybeans at prices higher than the international price.
That would push up the domestic China price, encouraging processors to buy cheaper imports, but there is also a lobby movement in China to increase the tariff on soybean imports to nine percent from three. If the lobby is successful, this would protect the domestic market from cheap imports.
