Statistics Canada lowers its production forecast to 19.1 million tonnes from the previous estimate of 19.5 million tonnes
While Statistics Canada cut its projection for canola production in 2022-23 by 400,000 tonnes, FarmLink Marketing Solutions senior analyst Neil Townsend said the number could go lower.
On Sept. 14, StatsCan issued its latest production estimates and lowered its call on canola from the 19.5 million tonnes forecast in its Aug. 29 report to 19.1 million. Despite the reduction, this year’s crop will be far better than last year’s 13.8 million tonnes due to greatly improved growing conditions.
“I’m a little bit of an agnostic. I did think there was the potential to go lower. The anecdotal reports from the countryside have been pretty consistent with canola being the one the farmers are a little disappointed in,” Townsend explained.
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However, he acknowledged that StatsCan’s latest number is in line with what the markets had expected. He suggested the amount could go lower come the federal agency’s next production report in December.
“I’ve heard enough from the countryside that yields aren’t going to improve from here on out,” Townsend said.
He said production very likely won’t fall below 18 million tonnes and not exceed 20 million. He predicted that a harvest of 18.8 million to 19.4 million tonnes is likely.
As for wheat, Townsend agreed with StatsCan upping its projection for all wheat from 34.6 million tonnes on Aug. 29 to 34.7 million on Sept. 14. Last year, Canadian farmers reaped 22.3 million tonnes.
“Wheat crops that are big tend to get bigger,” he said.
However, Townsend said he has an issue with StatsCan’s forecast for durum. The federal agency lowered its call from 6.5 million tonnes a few weeks ago to now 6.1 million. He placed durum at around 5.8 million tonnes.
Townsend said StatsCan probably high-balled its number.
