Canfax report, Sept. 17, 2015

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Published: September 17, 2015

Cattle little changed

Fed steers averaged $180.10 per hundredweight, up 62 cents. Heifers averaged $178.72.

Dressed sales ranged from $296-$300 cwt. delivered.

U.S. buyer interest was not a factor in the western Canadian market.

Chicago live cattle futures fell as the American cash market weakened on slow beef demand and increasing carcass weights. U.S. steer carcasses averaged 906 pounds the last week of August, equaling the record and up 29 lb. from last year. Weights will likely continue to increase if feedlots don’t pick up the pace of selling.

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The weekly Canadian cash-to-futures basis continues seasonally strong but weaken modestly to -$8.98.

Weekly Western Canadian fed slaughter Sept. 5 fell six percent to 35,322 head.

For the year slaughter is running seven percent behind last year.

Weekly fed exports to Aug. 29 fell 17 percent to 3,508 head.

To date exports are 46 percent behind last year’s pace.

September is usually a tough month for the fed market with soft beef demand from cash-strapped consumers and ample market-ready supplies.

Prices tend to rebound in the fourth quarter when market-ready supply tightens.

Cow prices fall

Non-fed supplies should increase in early fall as producers start making culling decisions.

Butcher bulls saw the largest single week drop in value this year while cows traded $4.50-$5 lower.

D1, D2 cows ranged $130 to $144 to average $136.13 and D3 cows ranged $115-$130 to average $124.38.

Railgrade cows were $225 to $260.

Most cows bought on speculation and fed on grass or in a dry lot have been marketed.

Pressure in the U.S. cow market and softer U.S. trim prices will keep a cap on Canadian prices.

D1, D2 cows are anticipated to trade into the low $130s by the end of September.

Cull cows are being delivered with their calf at side and being split at auction.

Feeders weaken

The yearling run has been more spread out than last year.

Prices continue at or near record highs.

The calf market was weaker than the yearling trade last week. Cash and forward delivery prices were about $5-$10 weaker.

The Chicago live and feeder futures market fell last week, adding a bearish tone to the cattle market.

Eastern buyers are active buyers of western calves and appear willing to pay a premium for certain groups of quality cattle.

Alberta feedlots have been less aggressive.

Buyers seem to be staying away from lighter calves and buyers on electronic sales seem to be more willing to pick away on partial loads of calves.

Even with lower prices, many see the calf market as a seller’s market.

Some producers who would traditionally finish their own calves are instead selling them on the open cash or forward market.

It was the third consecutive week where Canadian feeder exports were below year ago levels.

Export volumes are anticipated to seasonally increase, however even with the loonie at US75 cents exports for the rest of the year could struggle to keep pace with 2014.

Beef weaker

U.S. Choice cutout ended last week at US$239.06 per cwt., down $1.77 and Select was $228.10, down 34 cents.

Compared to the same week last year, Choice is now down five percent or $12.48 and Select is down three percent or $8.25.

Cattle Buyers Weekly forecasts that favourable operating margins will cause packers to keep slaughter strong and that will oversupply the beef market, resulting in lower beef cutouts.

But the price will still be comparatively expensive relative to chicken and pork.

Canadian boxed beef prices were unavailable.

Markets at a glance

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