Canfax report, July 30, 2015

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Published: July 30, 2015

Feeder cattle down

The fed market is following the usual seasonal trend because prices have declined about 10 percent since the June highs.

The last two years were an anomaly because the tight cattle supply caused prices to stay strong through the summer.

Feeding margins have narrowed considerably as cash prices have fallen over the last six weeks.

Fall-placed calves remain profitable, while early 2015-placed yearlings might only break even.

There are indications that grid prices are higher than the cash market, which has encouraged producers to allocate more cattle to the grid versus cash.

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Both Alberta packers bought cash cattle but did not book cattle for a specific week. Instead, they were scattering inventory through August.

Dressed sales were $306-$308 per hundredweight delivered, down $2-$4 from the previous week.

Weighted average steer prices closed at $183.12 per cwt., the lowest price this year.

U.S. packer bids were not high enough to succeed. U.S. bids were in the upper C$170s to low $180s, depending on dressing percent and freight.

The nearby Chicago live cattle contract was trading at the lowest level since mid-April.

Reuters reported that cash cattle in the U.S. Plains sold at US$145-$146 per cwt, down as much as $3 from the previous week.

Canadian prices might be close to posting the summer low.

Canadian packer margins have improved, allowing plants to add hours to the kill schedule.

Weekly western Canadian fed slaughter was 34,000 head, the largest weekly kill this year.

Slaughter cows mixed

D1, D2 cows ranged C$130-$145 to average $137.17, up $1.25. D3 cows ranged $115-$130 to average $123.17, down $1.50.

Rail grade bids were steady at $260-$265 per cwt. delivered.

Slaughter bull prices slipped $1 to average $169.20.

Weekly western Canadian non-fed slaughter to July 18 rose four percent to 4,806 head.

Weekly exports to July 11 surged 51 percent to 5,863 head. Exports are down 21 percent so far this year.

Feeders mixed

Stressed pastures led to a larger than usual number of stocker calves and feeders at auction.

Volume was 16,472 head, up 71 percent over the same week last year and 10 percent larger than the previous week.

Grass cattle and calves are being sold two to three weeks ahead of the norm.

Calves lighter than 500 pounds and feeders heavier than 800 lb. rose, while middle weight feeders 500-800 lb. fell $1-$2.50.

Feeder exports to July 11 rebounded following the July 4 holiday week to 3,495 head.

Quality and lot size should improve as pairs are split and fresh yearlings come off grass.

Beef weaker

U.S. beef cutouts remained under pressure, but the declines slowed.

Choice was US$232.59, down $1.36, and Select was $227.96, down $2.86.

Choice is down nine percent from a year ago, and Select is down 10 percent.

Hide prices have dropped to $60 per hide from $100 since the beginning of the year.

Weekly Canadian boxed beef prices to July 11 saw AAA at C$290.58, down $16, and AA was $288.64, down $10.

Montreal wholesale prices fell to $337-$340 per cwt.

canfax report

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